The Russian military's offensives in Kharkiv and elsewhere are gradually losing strength, as they have begun using a large amount of outdated Cold War-era weapons and civilian equipment, indicating that Russia's war resources are beginning to run dry. However, this does not mean that the Russian military has lost its offensive momentum. Russia remains a populous country with a more comprehensive strength than Ukraine, capable of suppressing Ukraine even with increased Western military support of the latter.
As things stand, even if the Russian military utilizes all of its national power from now on, it will not be sufficient to achieve significant breakthroughs on the front lines. They can only seize positions point by point, though at the same time, this will cause substantial losses. Under this basic judgment, Ukraine's correct strategy should be adopting a modern protracted warfare strategy, deploying certain troops to elastic defense on the front line, thereby forming a reliable defensive depth. The objective of this is to maximize the depletion of Russian forces during their offensives, causing their attacks to stall.
Meanwhile, Ukraine's main strike force should maneuver swiftly behind this well-fortified front line, utilizing information advantages to strike and destroy the Russian rear system. They should target and eliminate high-value targets such as Russian logistics supply depots, command posts, transportation hubs, and bases with high-precision strikes.
The purpose of this strategy is to use the contact line as a strategic lure, attracting Russian forces, while concentrating firepower to eliminate the Russian rear resources. This approach aims to reduce the Russian military with minimal cost, forcing a retreat and achieving a strategic victory for Ukraine.
Russia, as a large country, cannot be annihilated. From a historical realist perspective, the defeat of Russia typically takes the form of withdrawing its troops as seen in Afghanistan, and Ukraine is expected to be similar. A basic prediction is that if U.S. support for Ukraine remains unchanged, the war in Ukraine will continue for about two more years. When Russian casualties reach around one million, it will be time for Russia to seriously consider withdrawing its troops.
Therefore, it is crucial that Western strategic policies regarding Ukraine are designed with a two-year timeframe in mind. Ukraine is unlikely to achieve a swift victory; this conflict is set to be a modern protracted war.