Since the beginning of the Donald Trump era, the United States has initiated a series of economic and technological crackdowns on China. Coupled with the strengthening of Western economic and trade blockades against Russia after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, China's economic and trade cooperation relationships have had to strengthen economic and trade exchanges with Russia and Central Asian countries. In the first four months of last year, the total import and export volume between China and the five Central Asian countries reached RMB 173.05 billion, a year-on-year increase of 37.3%, with the total trade volume breaking RMB 50 billion for the first time. China imports a large amount of energy products and minerals from these countries, and agricultural imports have also increased significantly, up 42.3% year-on-year in the first four months of last year. It mainly exports machinery, electronics, footwear, clothing, and other products to these five Central Asian countries, with growth also significant, increasing by over 60% year-on-year in the first four months of last year. Moreover, trade between China and Europe via Central Asia is also increasing. In the first two months of this year, the China-Europe Railway Express operated 2,928 trains and shipped 317,000 TEUs of goods, representing year-on-year increases of 9% and 10% respectively.
The increasing frequency of trade with the West naturally imposes higher demands on transportation infrastructure construction, and indeed China has been working on this aspect in Central Asia. In 2022, China successfully promoted the regular operation of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan and China-Tajikistan-Uzbekistan highways, benefiting export transportation from its southwestern provinces including Sichuan. Among many transportation infrastructure projects, the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway is of paramount importance.
As a key project under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway connects China, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan, with extremely high strategic significance. The project can effectively improve the convenience of logistics transportation and enrich economic and cultural exchanges. Furthermore, after the completion of this railway, it can connect to the Trans-Afghan Railway (Uzbekistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan) in the south, and even extend directly to the Gwadar Port in Pakistan, forming a major transportation artery from northwest China through Central Asia to South Asia. To the west, it can connect to the railway system within Iran and reach the Persian Gulf and the eastern coast of the Mediterranean Sea, which is of great significance for China to comprehensively expand its westward connectivity network.
The railway network holds great significance for the expansion of geopolitical and economic influence. Once the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway is fully constructed, China's political and economic influence in Central Asia and even the Middle East region is expected to be further deepened. Therefore, since 1997, the memorandum to initiate the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway has been signed. However, due to Russia's concerns about its own influence in Central Asia, its multiple obstructions hindered the smooth progress of the project. In the second half of last year, due to the Western sanctions and its increasingly unfavorable situation, Russia finally agrees to the commencement of railway construction. Recently, Kyrgyzstan President Sadyr Japarov publicly announced that all feasibility studies are ready, negotiations have entered the final stage, and construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway will commence in October this year. This news is a major boon for the project, which has been shelved for more than 20 years. However, considering multiple factors, uncertainties remain about the railway's smooth commencement and its subsequent effectiveness and impact.
Firstly, regarding the funding and technological arrangements for railway construction, disputes persist. Initially, the trilateral negotiations between China, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan discussed the issue of independent financing for each corridor segment. By 2022, project participants agreed that China and Uzbekistan would independently prepare funds for their respective projects. However, as of March this year, Kyrgyzstan still refuses to fully bear the cost of the corridor's most expensive and longest segment (280 km out of 450 km). The latest statement from the Kyrgyz President also does not mention related funding arrangements. This project has the longest mileage within Kyrgyzstan, requiring passage through mountainous terrain, and faces significant challenges in financing and engineering. Moreover, the issue of railway gauge alignment from Xinjiang in China to Kyrgyzstan remains to be negotiated. If China's funding is introduced to cover the construction costs of the Kyrgyz section of the railway, it would mean loans and providing collateral such as mineral exploitation rights, further increasing China's financial influence, which is not supported by public opinion in Kyrgyzstan. Therefore, uncertainties remain about whether the railway can start construction smoothly.
Secondly, the potential influence of Russia remains significant. After the Russia-Ukraine war, Russia's influence in the five Central Asian countries indeed showed a downward trend. Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev even directly stated his refusal to recognize the status of the two "republics" in eastern Ukraine. However, based on traditional political, cultural, and energy ties, Russia's influence has not fully declined and has even shown signs of resurgence. In March of this year, the Uzbek President announced during a visit to Russia that Uzbekistan is prepared to launch a series of cooperation projects with Russia worth up to USD 45 billion. Uzbekistan also invited Russia to participate in the construction of the Trans-Afghan Railway. Moreover, to ensure domestic supply and exports to China, the five Central Asian countries have overall increased their imports of energy from Russia this year, undoubtedly further increasing Russia's actual control over these countries.
Due to concerns that the China-Central Asia railway might divert economic benefits from the China-Russia railway, Russia's hesitant attitude has not fundamentally changed. Furthermore, out of geopolitical caution towards China, Russia has never abandoned its vigilance. Recently disclosed confidential Russian documents indicate that as recently as a decade ago, Russia was actively preparing for a potential "Chinese military invasion", even considering the use of nuclear weapons. Now, the strengthening of Russia's influence in the five Central Asian countries and the proactive accommodation of these countries also mean that Russia's stance still holds significant influence, and any complete or partial reversal could still hinder the actual commencement of the railway.
Additionally, the role played by Western powers in Central Asia cannot be overlooked. NGOs in the region. According to the research by Tajik and Kyrgyz institutions, there has been a notable increase in Western influence, particularly from organizations like Freedom House, which has expanded its presence in areas such as environmental protection and human rights. This has led to a rise in anti-Russia content across various media platforms within the region. Moreover, there is a potential for public opinion to swiftly shift against China, as demonstrated by recent developments surrounding the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway project. The China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway covers a wide geographical area and has a significant impact on the environment along its route. NGOs have cited concerns over environmental impact, labor rights, and local employment, staging protests and petition activities in attempts to hinder the progress of the project. As sentiment towards China deteriorates among Central Asian populations, the manipulative influence of NGOs poses a substantial obstacle to regional projects and relations.
Fourthly, Central Asia is also an important point of interest for India's external relations development, and India's expansion plans have received stronger support from Russia. Russia and India have been advancing the North-South International Transport Corridor project, and some transportation infrastructure will pass through the territories of Central Asian countries, integrating them into the intercontinental trade process.
India's substantial investment in Iran's Chabahar Port is operational within the project's framework, providing Central Asian nations with a maritime trade route and facilitating access to the Central Asian market for coastal nations like India. The proposed railway aims to connect Central Asian countries with the port infrastructure of the Indian Ocean. Plans include Russia and India's joint efforts to expand their land and sea-based infrastructure.
The transportation infrastructure development promoted by India undermines the economic benefits and geopolitical influence of Chinese projects, a trend amplified by Russia's support to India in countering China. Consequently, even if the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway is fully realized, its effectiveness could be compromised by the progress of the Russia-India North-South Corridor project.
ANBOUND's founder Mr. Kung Chan has previously pointed out in a recent discussion that China's westward development should break free from inward thinking based on the Heihe–Tengchong Line and instead adopt a perspective from the standpoint of the world's strategic landscape. The vast western region of China can be considered the true center of the world, and engaging in external economic cycles through the region is the fundamental solution for its westward development. Central Asia, directly adjacent to Xinjiang, is a direct gateway for the western region to access the outside world. Therefore, for projects like the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway that have hopes of formal commencement, as well as a plethora of other Central Asian infrastructure projects, it is essential for China to fully recognize their value from a strategic perspective, thoroughly analyze the challenges they face, and respond to them seriously and effectively to ensure their smooth progress and full effectiveness.
Final analysis conclusion:
The China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, which has been long-delayed, has finally confirmed its official construction date. Nevertheless, significant uncertainties persist. China will need to undertake serious preparation and response to address the accompanying challenges.
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Zhou Chao is a Research Fellow for Geopolitical Strategy programme at ANBOUND, an independent think tank.
