Just before the Build 2024 Global Developers Conference, Microsoft held a stunning preview event for global consumers, unveiling a new Windows PC brand Copilot+PCs, a move that signifies a new era for AI PCs. Unlike earlier so-called AI PCs on the market, Microsoft has fully integrated its AI system, Copilot, into the Windows system, embedding OpenAI's GPT-4o model. While being astonished with such an achievement, many feel a sense of familiarity with the future of computer technology as outlined by Microsoft. In fact, ANBOUND's founder Mr. Kung Chan had previously constructed a forward-looking model of future computers in the AI era during his long-term research on AI. Comparative studies reveal that although this future AI computer model did not spur Chinese enterprises like Huawei and Lenovo to achieve a leading position, it almost entirely foresaw the emergence of Microsoft's Copilot+PCs.
The main comparisons can be seen in several aspects:
First of all, AI computers will achieve generational transcendence. Chan's model indicated that simple performance improvements would not bring about generational leaps in performance, but AI computers would create significant generational differences in performance. In this model, he noted that Samsung's AI smartphones were just the beginning, and now intense competition has emerged between the two global operating systems of Microsoft and Apple crucial to their future survival. The dominant Windows and Apple OS systems will face major challenges, with the leader in AI prevailing while the loser falls behind. The release of the Copilot+PC system shows that Microsoft's technological ambitions are evident. In the competition for future AI computer leadership, Microsoft has already surpassed Apple. Microsoft's Copilot+PCs introduce a new framework, combining the powerful functions of CPU, GPU, and the new high-performance neural processing unit (NPU), achieving 40+ TOPS (trillion operations per second) AI computing power. This makes the new Surface Pro 58% faster than Apple's MacBook Air with the M3 chip, becoming the fastest and most AI-experienced PC to date. In fact, even Apple's latest M4 chip, released not long ago, only reaches a maximum of 38 TOPS.
Secondly, it can overcome global language barriers. Chan's model sees future AI computers would be the world's first truly language barrier-free computers, seamlessly accompanying the users, collaborating with them at any time, and working with people who speak different languages worldwide. In fact, Microsoft's Copilot+PCs has almost achieved this goal. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella stated that Copilot+PCs already possess real-time translation capabilities. This feature can automatically translate live or recorded audio from any app or video platform into English subtitles in real-time, supporting translation of over 40 languages, including Chinese. It converts PC audio into uniform English subtitles, displayed in the app's window in real-time. This functionality is available even when users are offline.
The third aspect is the use of natural language for commands. Achieving strong coupling between machines and humans is a key point in Chan's model. He suggests that AI computers utilizing natural language can eliminate the need for keyboards, enabling full communication and operation through natural language interaction. This represents the hallmark of the AI computer era. Microsoft's Copilot+PCs are precisely developing towards this direction. Each Copilot+PC is equipped with a powerful AI agent, which can be activated with a single press of the new Copilot key on the keyboard. Microsoft states that a single click allows users to invoke the latest AI models with Copilot+PCs, and that OpenAI's latest flagship AI model, GPT-4o, will soon be integrated into Copilot. At the launch event, Microsoft demonstrated how Copilot uses voice commands to guide users on the game Minecraft.
Fourthly, there is the use of natural language. This also reflects the strong coupling between machines and humans. Chan's model has already mentioned this concept, stating that AI will necessitate the reinvention of all existing commercial software applications on computers. These applications must incorporate natural language functions to have a future market. Microsoft's Copilot+PCs are working towards this goal. For example, Copilot+PC's Cocreator uses diffusion algorithm to generate images based on text prompts and doodles in the Paint application. At the event, Microsoft demonstrated how Cocreator combines user drawings and text prompts to create images. It stated that since the launch of Image Creator, nearly 10 billion images have been generated, helping more people easily transform their ideas, dreams, and visions into reality through natural language descriptions.
Then, there is the direction where the outer design of AI computers would change. Chan suggested that hardware design will increasingly resemble today's iPads, i.e., tablets, rather than the complex, keyboard-equipped "boxes" commonly used now. Under the Copilot+PC, Microsoft has launched the new generation of Surface Pro tablets and Surface Laptop notebooks. The Surface Pro now offers screen sizes of 13.8 inches and 15 inches, introducing OLED displays for the first time with a contrast ratio of 1,000,000:1, compared to the LCD version's 1200:1. The former provides more vivid and dynamic colors, and both models support a 120Hz refresh rate. Additionally, the new models feature "the best Surface camera ever", Wi-Fi 7 support, and a new keyboard accessory called Surface Pro Flex. This is, of course, just the beginning, and there will be a process of customer adaptation, but the direction is clearly set.
Finally, there is the better capabilities for humans. Chan's model mentioned that AI technology can offer remarkable self-learning abilities, thereby enhancing human work capabilities, turning and integrating machines into human work companions, rather than merely being cold and inanimate devices. Copilot+PC is making strides in this direction with features like the Recall function. This function allows it to use AI to access any content the user has seen on the PC, effectively making it a part of the user's memory. For instance, Carolina Hernandez, Microsoft's Principal Product Manager for Windows AI Experiences, demonstrated at the conference how she retrieved a PowerPoint in a sea of files. She instructed Recall to find a PowerPoint with a purple chart, and Recall immediately found and presented the relevant presentation. This learning capability can obviously improve user productivity.
Models are always about conceptualization of ideas, thoughts, and research. Chan's AI-era future computer model almost entirely predicted the emergence of Microsoft's Copilot+PC. Reflecting on this research process, he believes that in the future AI era, Microsoft has a great chance to be the leader. Apple, on the other hand, is overly focused on exploiting the performance legacy of the Steve Jobs era, engaging in minor innovations without sensitivity, leading to its own downfall. Chan originally developed his AI computer model to aid Chinese companies like Lenovo and Huawei in seizing the opportunity to surpass their competitors. Unfortunately, their understanding of information appears to be insufficient. These companies seem to be in a phase of replicating existing models, resulting in lower-quality products and relying on competitive pricing to gain some market share.
It is worth noting that Microsoft still has a long way to go to perfect its AI computers. The current state is just a "preliminary announcement", with many issues remaining to be addressed. However, there are also numerous opportunities for it to excel. The general direction and concept of AI computers have been established, as pointed out by Chan's model, and it is now only a matter of time for these predictions to be realized.
Final analysis conclusion:
Kung Chan's forward-looking model of AI-era computers accurately anticipated the development of Microsoft's Copilot+PC. This model addresses overcoming global language barriers, implementing conversational commands and software tools, and evolving form factors, encompassing a comprehensive range of features. In the forthcoming AI era, Microsoft is poised to become a leader, potentially signaling the end of Apple's dominant period.
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Kung Chan, founder of ANBOUND, an independent think tank.
Xia Ri is an Industry Researcher at ANBOUND, an independent think tank.
