While many Chinese tourists are expected to arrive in Japan during the Lunar New Year holiday beginning this Saturday, the number will most likely not reach pre-pandemic levels despite it being the first new year since the lifting of a Chinese ban on group tours to Japan.
“It will probably increase about tenfold compared with (the same time) last year, however, it still will only be around 50% or 60% of 2019 numbers,” said aviation and travel analyst Kotaro Toriumi.
While the number of inbound tourists remains on an upward trend, resulting in various parts of the country experiencing overtourism, those from China have remained low in comparison with previous years since Japan opened its borders in October 2022.
In 2019, the 9.5 million visitors from China made up the highest proportion of inbound tourists. But in 2023, there were only around 2.5 million Chinese visitors, a significantly smaller number than those from other parts of East Asia such as South Korea and Taiwan.
The low turnout was partially due to China's ban on group tours to Japan, but even after its lifting in August last year, the recovery has been slow, keeping the number of Chinese tourists at its lowest in recent years. There were only around 40% as many Chinese tourists in Japan in December as there were in the same month of 2019.
Even with the approaching Lunar New Year, flights to and from China remain only around 60% of pre-pandemic levels, Toriumi said. For Japanese airlines plying such routes, the figure is even lower, at around half, he said.
The Japan Association of Travel Agents (JATA) could not provide an estimate of tourist numbers from China during the Lunar New Year, but it noted that the number of visas issued to Chinese citizens to visit Japan had remained relatively low so far this year.
“The Japan consulate in Shanghai has said that the number of visas issued recently is only half of that issued around the same time in 2019,” said Miho Kuwana, a public relations official at JATA. “The number of visas issued usually goes up around long holidays such as the Lunar New Year.”
Both Toriumi and Kuwana pointed to visa-exemption agreements struck recently between China and countries such as Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand as being a key factor for the lower-than-expected turnout of Chinese tourists in Japan during the upcoming holiday.
The agreements allow holders of Chinese passports to travel visa-free to these countries for up to 30 days — a perk not available in many other countries, including Japan — making them more attractive destinations.
In 2019, the 9.5 million visitors from China made up the highest proportion of inbound tourists to Japan. But in 2023, the country only welcomed around 2.5 million Chinese visitors.
In 2019, the 9.5 million visitors from China made up the highest proportion of inbound tourists to Japan. But in 2023, the country only welcomed around 2.5 million Chinese visitors. | REUTERS
Last year's release of treated wastewater from the crippled Fukushima nuclear power plant is likely to still figure in Chinese nationals' travel decisions as well, according to Toriumi.
Meanwhile, the demographics of Chinese tourists visiting Japan appear to be changing and will most likely continue to evolve over time.
“The people coming from China these days are ones who already are knowledgeable about Japan and tend to be from a higher income bracket, meaning that they will do some (higher-end) shopping, stay at luxury hotels and (for example) go on adventure travels to Hokkaido,” Toriumi said. He noted that in contrast with the period leading up to 2019 when group tours were common, these days, there were more individual tourists with money to spend.
Nevertheless, Japan might not be in any rush to woo Chinese tourists, especially large tour groups that require an overwhelming number of buses to be rented out and hotel rooms to be booked, since the Japanese tourism industry is already struggling with a labor shortage.
Furthermore, many parts of the country are looking for ways to combat overtourism, with tourist numbers from other countries continuing to skyrocket.
“It obviously depends on the region, but we still hear about hotels and lodges that are unable to open up all of their rooms, due to them being short-staffed,” said Tomokage Nakayama, an official at the Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO).
Much like JATA, JNTO too finds it difficult to estimate the influx of Chinese tourists over the Lunar New Year.
“(The inbound tourism market from) China is definitely still on the way to recovery but (the Lunar New Year) will be one opportunity,” said Nakayama. “Although an immediate return to pre-pandemic levels is impossible, we do expect some increase.”
