Mr. Akio Toyoda, unlike the founder of Toyota, is a third-generation entrepreneur who has received a good Western education. He is fluent in English and fully familiar with the culture, rules, and order of Western countries' capital and business world. He was educated in Boston, the cultural center of Western capitalism, and primarily attended Babson College in the southern part of Boston. Babson College is a very low-key but classic business school. In 2016, its MBA program was ranked first in entrepreneurship by U.S. News & World Report, and Babson College has held this honor for almost thirty years. In 2014, Money magazine rated Babson College as the best college in the United States from an investment perspective.
On January 26, 2023, Toyoda unexpectedly announced that he would step down as president and CEO of Toyota Motor Corporation on April 1, but would assume the position of chairman. The role of president is now taken over by Koji Sato, who has previously led Lexus to become a well-known luxury car brand in the United States.
Interestingly, after stepping down as president, Toyoda seems to have sparked a public storm. He stands at the forefront, boldly expresses his views, and quickly becomes a rare iconic figure in the Japanese business community.
Shortly after the start of 2024, a debate over the future discourse of electric vehicles unfolded between two giants in the automotive industry. The protagonists of the virtual "battle of words" were Toyoda himself with Elon Musk.
At the outset, Toyoda expressed pessimistic views on electric cars, stating, "No matter how much progress [battery-electric vehicles] make, I think they will still only have a 30 per cent market share". He added that "the remaining 70 per cent will be [hybrid-electric vehicles], [hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles], and hydrogen engines. And I think [internal-combustion] engine cars will definitely remain".
Soon, these remarks caught Musk's attention, who responded with a single word "sigh" on his X, formerly known as Twitter, expressing his frustration and disbelief. It is reported that Musk is very annoyed by Tesla's current sales performance in Japan falling short of expectations. Musk blamed this on the Japanese "lack of awareness", which he says he heard from Japanese friends. In fact, he had previously warned that if traditional car companies did not quickly transition to electric vehicles, they would be abandoned as was the film giant Kodak in the digital age.
Since stepping down from his position as president of Toyota Motor Corporation, Toyoda appears to have become his true self, showing a determination and stance to "fight electric cars to the end".
Toyoda pointed out the insufficient charging infrastructure for electric cars. He considers electric cars to be environmentally unfriendly and low-quality products, not truly new energy sources. He also sees that the batteries of electric cars rarely last more than 10 years, and the disposal of used batteries could lead to environmental pollution. It is worth noting that Toyoda once again mentioned the original intention that is being forgotten in the global automotive industry: the true mission of the automotive industry, including Toyota, is to reduce carbon emissions. However, in reality, this has been distorted to mean that only electric cars can achieve this goal, completely ignoring the existence of other mature technologies.
Toyoda's continuous attacks on electric cars are not without reason. Tesla's performance in the Japanese market can be described as a complete failure. Import volumes of Tesla in the Japanese market have not only failed to grow but have also decreased by 6.8%. In addition, Tesla's announced performance also falls short from the ideal. The situation of electric cars is quite bad, with Tesla's gross profit margin in 2023 being 18%, the lowest since 2019, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.35%. Musk's self-explanation is that Tesla is between two growth waves, and sales in 2024 will significantly slow down.
While electric cars are still being raved about in the global market, as I predicted at the end of 2023, electric cars, as a type of new energy vehicle, are already in decline, and future market trends will be downward, even sharply so. The specific reasons, in my opinion, are mainly threefold. First, technological breakthroughs are difficult to achieve. Although there is continuous "good news" in terms of technological entertainment, including technologies like "solid-state batteries", its practical mass production is still far from realization. Second, electric car subsidies and support policies in various countries around the world are being withdrawn one after another, eliminating the space for policy arbitrage. As a result, car prices will rise or production will suffer significant losses. Third, the industrial technology is simple, mainly consisting of the "three-electric" system: motor, battery pack, and electronic control. Overcapacity in assembly is easy to achieve, leading to price suppression. Therefore, in today's automotive manufacturing industry, although most people are still part of the "silent majority", the industry bubble is gathered in the field of new energy vehicles, and the risks are concentrated there as well. The situation is rapidly reversing.
In contrast to reality, in the public opinion arena, Musk still holds a dominant position globally. Not only in the automotive manufacturing industry but also in other areas, including even the situation regarding the Ukraine conflict, he holds such a major sway in public opinion. In our current world, no global entrepreneurs can compare with Musk, but even among the wealthy global capital and investment sectors, no one can be mentioned in the same breath as him.
Akio Toyoda could be the only exception.
Toyoda's views which are contrary to popular ones, are difficult for the public opinion arena to digest. This sparks intense debates, some of which may even escalate into a sort of gambling. I believe these debates are a manifestation of focal points in the public opinion arena, and once such focal points emerge, it usually signifies the possibility of disruptive changes. We can see that Toyoda is vastly different from traditional Japanese entrepreneurs. Not only does he manage and control massive assets, but he also embodies the symbol of Toyota, holding a prominent position in the automotive manufacturing industry with a strong background in modern corporate culture. I foresee that in the future, he can be regarded as a symbolic figure representing Asian businesses capable of competing head-to-head with Musk.
If we were to say that in the past, certain Japanese could represent Asia as a whole, this viewpoint would be very rigid and immature because there is no such iconic figure. Some may only have achieved success in business, but that does not mean much. Business success is often just a matter of luck and timing, and does not necessarily make the entrepreneur an influential personality in the global public opinion arena. In Asia, there are plenty of successful businessmen, but when it comes to entrepreneurial ideas, most may only possess some rudimentary business experience; instead, they are known for their shrewdness, along with clichéd expressions of "doing business with integrity". This situation often leads people to assume that Asian entrepreneurs, whether in pig farming or industrial manufacturing, are all the same type of people. That is, they are seen as people who work quietly, without a voice, without status, and without imagination. More importantly, they are unrelated to the future of humanity.
Now, Toyoda has given Asians hope. He may become the "Asian version of Elon Musk", representing Asian manufacturing and expressing the opinions of the Asian manufacturing industry, making the world see and appreciate the lifestyle created by Asia. Therefore, Akio Toyoda-san, Keep Going, Go Go Go!
