Assessment and Prediction: The Political Dynamics Between the Establishment and Anti-establishment
Many closely follow the presidential election race between Donald Trump
and Joe Biden, and it is increasingly recognized that the impact of U.S.
politics lies in what transpires after the election as this can reshape the
world. Therefore, observing the election becomes crucial. Besides Europe's pretension
that prefers facing future self-embarrassment, as seen in the Ukraine-Russia
conflict involving the use of oil as a weapon, the rest of the world appears to
be aware of the importance of the election.
However, the question remains regarding how to interpret the
situation. The key lies in the struggle between the establishment and
anti-establishment factions, which has become a focal point. Many leftist
movements in various countries advocate populism to an unabashed extent. What
can traditional conservatives do in response? There are essentially two
options: either embrace populism or adhere to principles. In reality, most
conservatives dare not stick to principles, as exemplified by the leadership of
the U.S. Republican Party under Mitch McConnell. They desire populism but are
unable to compete with the Democratic Party. Consequently, the rise of the
anti-establishment faction occurred, with Trump winning victories that even
McConnell's Republican Party had to align with him to secure the party's own
survival and to highlight its values.
In Europe, most right-wing anti-establishment factions still
struggle to gain majority support, such as Reform UK which was previously known
as the Brexit Party, Marine Le Pen's National Rally in France, and staunch
conservative parties in the Netherlands and Spain. Only the right-wing party in
Italy has won election victories. Therefore, the road ahead for Europe is still
long, but the direction is clear, which is on the success of the
anti-establishment factions in overturning the status quo. However, things take
a different turn in South America.
In South America, the concept of a moderate faction is virtually
unknown, and political dynamics often resemble the fervor for football.
Nevertheless, the developmental trajectory of South American countries remains
a subject of keen interest to many. Today, in Argentina, the anti-establishment
candidate Javier Milei secured victory as the recent president-elect with a 55%
to 45% margin over the leftist, sending a clear political signal tantamount to
the trumpet call for South American nations marching toward conservatism. The
newly elected president of Argentina, often touted as the "Argentinian
Trump", serves as inspiration for the anti-establishment factions in the
United States. In the 2024 U.S. elections, Trump may also achieve a significant
victory, potentially regaining control of the White House and even securing
another eight-year presidential term, setting a historical precedent in
The world is rapidly moving towards
conservatism. In my view, the rise of anti-establishment factions signifies the
activation of a self-preservation mechanism within Western political economies.
Failure to initiate such a response could potentially lead to social
revolutions and the transformation of national identity, resulting in
irreparable and substantial disruptions. While the operations of
anti-establishment factions differ significantly from the establishment, they
still operate within the societal framework, albeit with different personnel
and principles. Their focus is on dismantling the established norms upheld by
"professional politicians" and their employment domains, injecting
vitality into society. This is not a revolutionary upheaval akin to Lenin's
overthrow and destruction of the Russian monarchy, so the nature of the state
remains unchanged. However, there will still be transformations in the
governance of the state.