In China's current international relations, there has been the emergence of what is known as "warrior-wolf diplomacy". Yet, such a type of diplomacy does not attain much achievement in the global arena – at most, it was only applauded by what is called "illegitimate nationalists" within China.
By "illegitimate nationalism", this refers to any assertions, initiatives, or expressions that fall outside of official documents of Chinese law or government, as well as of the highest-ranking leaders of the Communist Party. For instance, there has been no explicit statement from the Chinese government or its highest authority saying "right" toward Russia's war in Ukraine. I believe, in fact, supporting Russia blatantly contradicts Chinese law, so that any statements in support of Russia could be regarded as "illegitimate" in China.
With the development of the current geopolitical situation, such a "warrior-wolf diplomacy" approach appears to fall out of place for China, and there are constantly new challenges appearing for the country.
Following the war in Ukraine, the biggest beneficiary is emerging increasingly evident. That is India, which seems even more assertive. In the field of international politics, India is actively working to establish its image and status as a major global player. Recently, India has been aiming to take on the leadership role of the Global South and clearly hopes to replace China.
India has showcased a great performance at the G20 and has propagated this idea on the international stage. It would be a test of strategic capability for its neighbor. It appears that China has yet to prepare a response to address it.
Within the economic and investment fields, Indian government officials often claim "tax issues" as a reason for restricting foreign companies. Among them, the Chinese Vivo, Oppo, Xiaomi, and South Korean Samsung have all faced disruptions in Indian market.
The current pattern of India-China relations is likely to persist for the long term, and there may be additional competitive factors from other countries in the future. If current trends continue in India market, Chinese companies and capital may face difficulties in the economic, trade, and investment domains.
One possible approach for China in response to that would be prohibiting the entry of Indian-manufactured Apple smartphones into the Mainland Chinese market. This might be done under a number of pretexts, for instance, unfair cost competition, violations of worker rights, support for terrorism, conflict with climate change, or any other reason to justify this prohibition, while allowing non-Indian manufactured smartphones to be sold in China. This move would clearly indicate a reason for the ban, that is India's various tax-related excuses, which not only prohibited Xiaomi smartphones but also confiscated a substantial amount of the company's profits. China's retaliation for this could be banning Indian-manufactured Apple smartphones and other Indian-manufactured products.
From a geopolitical and strategic perspective, this measure seeks to influence the Indian government through Apple. The Indian government might then be aware that its measures against Chinese companies would carry substantial risks. Even if the Indian government remains indifferent to such risks, its client groups would certainly feel the impact. This implies potentially losing access to the Chinese market, and a scenario where India lacks access to this market could lead to a shift in its competitive dynamics, focusing more on direct competition with Western markets. The consequences of such direct competition would come to India fairly soon.
