Date: 23 August 2023
Interviewer: Wang Jianing, Reporter at South China Morning Post SCMP
Interviewee: Kung Chan, Founder of ANBOUND
In the era of information explosion, obtaining true knowledge is exceptionally difficult. Nevertheless, Wang Jianing, China reporter at South China Morning Post, and Kung Chan of the Think Tank ANBOUND never give up their efforts to explore the truth.
The BRICS summit was held in Johannesburg, South Africa on August 22-24, 2023. As the first in-person meeting of BRICS leaders after the COVID-19 pandemic, it naturally drew global media attention. Wang, a young journalist based in Beijing for the SCMP, is an important member of SCMP news team. He consistently focuses on China's currency and fiscal policy trends. He often raises questions and asks for unique insights. As usual, Chan answered all the below questions bluntly but thoughtfully.
Wang Jianing: With the convening of the BRICS summit and the applications from multiple countries to join this mechanism, there has been much discussion about whether the BRICS countries will become geopolitical competitors to the Group of Seven (G7). How do you view the current relationship between the BRICS mechanism and the G7?
Kung Chan: Discussing financial issues within the framework of geopolitics is a significant change in itself. In the past, the financial sector wielded significant influence. Yet, the "BRICS" is just a geopolitical term, far from being a mechanism, and it does not hold the same central position in the world as the G7 countries. While BRICS nations can challenge the global order, competing with the G7 is not feasible.
In fact, many years ago, I pointed out that spatial fragmentation would lead to the dissolution of globalization, and regional hegemonies would be rising as challengers to the global order. India, Iran, Turkey, Israel, South Africa and others are regional powers, and the current BRICS nations do not encompass all regional powers. If they attempt to do so, it will highlight their geopolitical competition with the G7 countries even more.
Wang Jianing: According to data from the World Bank and IMF, when measured by purchasing power parity, the GDP of BRICS countries has already surpassed that of the G7, although it still lags behind in terms of GDP and GDP per capita calculated at current prices. Does it mean that the BRICS nations currently possess the ability to reshape the global political and economic order and challenge the status of the G7?
Kung Chan: The economic size is merely a numerical concept and not a true indicator of strength. The world's geopolitical landscape and its competition depend on genuine power, which stems from the core of institutions and their support, as well as the control over resources. The BRICS nations are currently divided and each pursuing its own path, making effective integration challenging. For the BRICS nations to achieve integration, they would need to relinquish many of their individual geopolitical pursuits. At least for now, it seems unlikely that this can be achieved; there is still a long way to go.
From a geopolitical perspective, the emergence of regional hegemony is a response to the failure of globalization. As regional hegemonies accumulate more energy and exert greater influence, this indicates that both globalization and global hegemony are losing their impact, leading to corresponding geopolitical shifts. In my view, the world in the future will be primarily shaped by regional hegemonies rather than a group of countries pursuing integration under a single concept (like "BRICS"). Such a world remains fragmented.
Wang Jianing: Do you foresee that the BRICS mechanism will compete with the G7 in terms of geopolitical influence, becoming an alternative option outside of the G7 for global governance, especially for countries in the Global South?
Kung Chan: The reason why the BRICS nations and the so-called BRICS mechanism still have influence today is that the challenge of regional hegemony is in its early stages. They are demonstrating their strength, seeking platforms, and expressing a sense of "I can change". Even within the BRICS nations themselves, I believe that even the BRICS countries themselves do not really think that just by sitting together, they can achieve a certain form of global governance.
Some attempt to divide the world into Global North and Global South. We indeed see that the Global South countries usually face problems like low income, high population density, and poor infrastructure. To be frank, in the face of these issues in the Global South countries, perhaps only China has extended a helping hand, while other countries have stood on the sidelines for a long time. It was not until China stepped forward, introduced the Belt and Road Initiative, and injected substantial funds that other countries started paying attention to the long-standing needs of the Global South from a geopolitical competition perspective.
I believe that future issues will be similar, where the existing world governance system and the competition between G7 countries and China will determine the basic interests of the Global South in the world. Without China, no one would pay attention to the plight of these Southern countries. This world does not truly have sympathy for poverty, the environment, and these Southern nations.
Editor: Over the years, Kung Chan has been working hard to analyze the situation and provide his unique perspectives, while Wang Jianing alike has been listening to such voices and reporting those to the public. In their respective positions, both offer insightful knowledge to this world crowded by noises.
Today, we may need more voices that are willing to think and explore. Perhaps only through this way, the world can become more rational.
Access to this interview on the site https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3232322/could-bigger-brics-bloc-be-global-match-g7
