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Thursday, July 13, 2023
Ukraine's Counteroffensive Has Essentially Ended
White Mountain

On the Ukrainian battlefield, amidst ongoing propaganda efforts, the available information indicates that Ukraine's highly anticipated counteroffensive has reached its conclusion, and the intensity of the battle has diminished. This can be observed from the data provided by both sides involved. Even the figures released by the Ukrainian General Staff regarding the daily number of Russian military casualties have shown a significant decline, suggesting a reduction in active combat. Additionally, both Ukraine and Russia have released numerous videos on the combats, serving their respective purposes while also indicating a stabilization of the overall situation, allowing both sides to showcase their military prowess.

I have previously noted that the Ukrainian military's offensive maneuvers have raised perplexing questions regarding their employment of modern warfare tactics. The current state of affairs further reinforces this observation. Despite claims from the U.S. Institute for the Study of War that Ukrainian forces have retaken 250 square kilometers of territory, such assertions primarily serve as forms of propaganda. It should be recognized that the objective of war extends beyond the mere reclamation of limited land. Rather, it involves the destruction of enemy forces, breakthroughs in enemy lines, and the achievement of strategic and campaign goals. As expected, the outcome of the counteroffensive reveals that the Ukrainian military has not effectively addressed the challenges associated with offensive operations. Conversely, the Russian military has demonstrated an assimilation of modern defensive tactics based on their observations of their Ukrainian counterparts.

Since the conflict's outset in March, we have been examining the novel modes of offensive and defensive operations utilized on the Ukrainian battlefield. However, the discussion of it is beyond the scope of the present context. Nevertheless, one undeniable fact remains: the Ukrainian military still lacks the comprehensive capacity to conduct modern warfare across the entirety of the battlefield, and the U.S. has yet to provide Ukraine with the requisite operational capabilities.

The current war situation has brought about these significant impacts and changes:

1. The outcome of Ukraine's counteroffensive has actually worked in Russia's favor. This can be observed from the attitudes of European countries, who now hold the belief that Russia still possesses strength and cannot be easily defeated.

2. The cold reception received by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the NATO summit is a reflection of the same situation. If the Ukrainian military were victorious on the battlefield, the attitudes of European countries would be significantly different.

3. In order for Ukraine to completely reverse the situation and even influence the attitudes of European countries in the future, obtaining the capability to secretly acquire nuclear weapons becomes necessary.

It must be acknowledged that European countries are essentially fearful of Russia and the prospect of nuclear weapons. Ukraine will eventually realize this and seek to obtain the understanding or approval of the U.S., even if it means going against American intentions, to acquire the capability to possess nuclear weapons. Only then will Ukraine instill genuine fear and respect in European countries, similar to the way Russia does. I have no doubt that this will be a significant observation window in the future, and such a frightening window has just been opened.

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