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Thursday, March 02, 2023
China's economy sputters just shy of high-income status
IORI KAWATE, Nikkei staff writer

BEIJING -- China came within a few hundred dollars of attaining high-income nation status last year, according to official statistics released Tuesday, as the economic slowdown and weak yuan blunted individual and corporate incomes.

The World Bank defines a high-income nation as one with a nominal gross national income (GNI) per capita above $13,205. China logged in at $12,608 last year, the National Bureau of Statistics reported.

In 2021, China's zero-COVID policies were effective in containing the pandemic responsible for normalizing economic activity, and the per capita GNI soared by more than 20% that year.

However, the GNI crept up by only 0.9% last year, largely due to the economy stalling on prolonged adherence to strict zero-COVID rules.

GNI measures the total income of individuals and corporations. It is measured by adding gross domestic product, net interest payments and dividends earned overseas. The World Bank classifies countries into four income levels based on GNI: high income, upper middle income, lower middle income and low income. It revises the criteria every seven years.

When measured in yuan, the GNI climbed by 5.1% in 2022, a slower pace than 2021's 13.3%. Corporate and household incomes lost momentum due to that year's lackluster economy.

Meanwhile, the deteriorating job market slammed household incomes. At the end of December, 2.97 million people were collecting unemployment insurance, up by 380,000 people from a year earlier. The total number of beneficiaries was the highest among comparable data dating back to 2012.

The stark year-on-year slump in the dollar GNI is connected to the weakening yuan. The Chinese currency averaged 6.72 yuan per dollar last year, marking a 4% depreciation from 2021.

On top of the serial rate hikes in the U.S., international investors have trimmed holdings in Chinese bonds over concerns about the country's economic prospects, reducing the value of the country's currency.

The Chinese government ended the zero-COVID policy at the start of the year, and the economy is steadily returning to normal. If a full economic recovery is paired with a stabilized yuan exchange rate, then China could potentially become a high-income nation this year.

Income disparities will pose a challenge. Last year, the top 20% of households held 10.5 times more disposable income on average than the bottom 20%. The imbalance has widened from the 10.2 multiple recorded in 2020.

Last year, urban households had 2.4 times more disposable income than rural households, an improvement from the 2.9 multiple from 10 years earlier.

However, income disparities within cities are growing partly because of surging condominium values. Tang ping, or the "lying flat" movement -- which is made up of youth with low motivation -- continues to grow and has been labeled a societal problem.

China's government is looking to correct disparities through the "common prosperity" campaign. Officials will likely face a complicated task balancing the initiative with stable economic growth.

Nikkei Asia
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