ANBOUND Webinar: Uncertainties in A Determined Period of Time - China's Macro & Industry Tendency in 2023
Date: 09:30-17:00 on Friday, 23 December 2022
Speakers:
He Jun, Senior Researcher and Director of Macro-Economy Research Center, ANBOUND
Dr. Wei Hongxu, Senior Economist, ANBOUND
The end of China's 20th National Congress marks that the country has embarked on a new journey of modernization, and many major issues related to China's future development have been determined. However, in the real world dominated by the decline of globalization and geopolitical competition, China's development still faces many new challenges.
To elucidate the situation what China is addressing and will be, ANBOUND hosted the webinar "Uncertainties in A Determined Period of Time - China's Macro & Industry Tendency in 2023" on December 23, 2022. The issues discussed were mainly on the 'certainties' and 'uncertainties' that affect China's economic and social development.
Among the certainties of China in 2023 and beyond those include:
i. political regime
ii. power structure
iii. policy framework
iv. development thoughts
v. policymaking environment and mechanism
vi. local governance
vii. international geopolitical environment.
The uncertainties in view of the country's economy include:
i. impact of the country's COVID-19 measures,
ii. economic growth and stability
iii. industrial development trend
iv. pattern of opening up
v. market prospects
vi. business confidence
vii. marketization and legal environment
viii. financial risks
ix. stability of supply chains
x. foreign investment
According to Mr. He Jun, private enterprises play an indispensable role in driving China's economy, although they have not been given adequate emphasis. It would be crucial for China to continuously open up and have a business environment based on the rule of law. The property market in China will gradually become normalized and stabilize, changing from its previous speculative condition, as it still has its market space, especially in urban areas. The government shall proactively expand the import of advanced technology, important equipment, and energy resources.
Dr. Wei Hongxu, on the other hand, noted the importance for China to balance its supply and demand. The country shall prioritize consumption and improve demand-side conditions, especially, supporting sustainable industries and service sectors, such as green agriculture, renewable energy, high-tech manufacturing with digitalization, high-end scientific initiatives as well as economic coordination across regions and cities. ANBOUND's prior research advocates the transition for China to enter a consumption-oriented society from a production-based one. This requires the adjustments of multiple parties to create the conditions and environment. The government shall proactively expand the import of advanced technology, important equipment, and energy resources.
ANBOUND researchers discussed that local authorities would adjust their development goals, expectations, conduct policy innovation and incentive practices that adapt to a low-growth, high-risk environment. With the advent of a new era of unpredictability, it would be necessary for the country to grasp complexity through dynamic tracking, seek opportunities in risks, and understand the elements of uncertainties amidst certainties. The GDP growth in 2024 would be up to the range of 5% and even higher, according to their optimistic projections.
