In the ongoing Ukraine war, the parties affected the most, naturally, would be its direct participants, i.e., Ukraine and Russia. Yet, other than these two, the impact of the war is also quite deeply felt in Europe.

Although the war has wakened the dormant NATO, united its member states, and greatly strengthened its armed forces and combat readiness, in the long run, the war is still no good news for Europe. Being the continent where the war takes place, Europe has been deeply involved in it. Unsurprisingly, the economy, society, and security of European countries are severely impacted by the war. Researchers at ANBOUND believe that Europe's long-term prospects are extremely bleak as a result.

Geographically and historically, Europe, the birthplace of modern industrial civilization, seems to have always been a land of contradictions. Europe is the smallest continent. More precisely, it is not even a continent, but merely a subcontinent that connects to Asia. The whole of Europe, excluding Russia and Turkey, is only 5.5 million square kilometers, less than two-thirds the size of Brazil and slightly more than half the size of China or the United States. American historian Tony Judt has said that Europe is unique in terms of internal differences and stark contrasts. It includes 44 countries (46 according to Western countries), most of which contain states and nations with their own languages. Many countries are without states but incorporate other nations and languages. All of these countries have their own specific and overlapping histories, politics, cultures, and memories.

Such a geographically complex, historically and culturally diverse Europe is also full of struggles and contradictions in its development. Historically, continental Europe has probably been the continent with the most wars of all kinds, including its war with Britain in the past. Europe is the birthplace of two World Wars, and if there is a third world war, it will probably still originate in Europe. Although the only warring parties of the current war in Ukraine are Russia and Ukraine, it has traversed national borders and evolved into a "quasi-world war" similar to a proxy war.

All wars will eventually end one day, and Ukraine hopes it to end before winter this year. Meanwhile, Russia believes that the war may last for a year. American scholars who are more pessimistic estimate that the war may last until the summer of 2023. However, for researchers at ANBOUND, even if the war ends next year, Europe will not come out of its shadow immediately. Indeed, the long-term prospect appears to be bleak.

There are reasons for such pessimism.

First, of course, is the impact of the war in Ukraine on the future geopolitical situation. As it stands, this is a war where NATO now teamed up with Ukraine against Russia. Since both Russia and Ukraine have sacrificed numerous lives, and paid huge political and economic costs, in addition that the war being a geopolitical struggle between Russia and the entire Western world, the deep enmity will be long-term. So long as Russia is not completely defeated, it is likely to establish a strategic buffer zone by occupying Ukrainian territory or by a permanent guarantee that Ukraine will not join NATO. While the United States and NATO will not end up in a direct war with Russia over Ukraine, based on geopolitical interests and values, the West will not abandon hostilities with Russia. Such an outcome will loom over Europe for a long time to come.

Secondly, the geopolitical situation has triggered the European energy crisis and exacerbates the inflation in European countries, which further drags down the European economy as a whole. On July 26 this year, the European Union announced a gas deal aimed at showing member states' commitment against Russia. Under the deal, EU countries will cut their natural gas use by 15 percent between August this year and March next year in a show of solidarity and limit Russia's ability to weaponize Europe's energy supplies. This is also to help Europe cope with a winter energy crisis. However, it remains unknown at what cost Europe will survive this "energy war". Currently, energy prices in Germany have tripled. With rising inflation, an escalating energy crisis, and the growing threat of recession, European countries are increasingly divided over the socioeconomic consequences of the conflict and its geopolitical knock-on effects.

Finally, the war exacerbates the division between old and new Europe and widened the rifts between these two. In her article published in the Foreign Affairs, Nathalie Tocci, Director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali in Rome, noted that the war in Ukraine, coupled with the energy crisis, has given European populists a perfect opportunity to rise again. This "could imperil not just European unity but the existence of the European Union as a whole", she said. What is worrying for the West is the return of old geopolitical rifts in Europe. On the one hand, there is a growing divide between the eastern and western parts of the European continent. Countries bordering Ukraine, such as the Baltic states and Poland, have called for justice through sanctions and strong military support for Ukraine. Western European countries, such as Italy, France, and Germany, tend to compromise with Russia. As energy and economic crises intensify, countries farther from the front are more likely to push for negotiations to end the war. On the other hand, there is the North-South divide that runs through the European continent. This divide nearly tore the eurozone apart during the sovereign debt crisis a decade ago. With the prospect of a recession or even stagflation in the near term, divisions between the EU's northern and southern members, especially Germany and Italy, are widening.

All in all, the military confrontation coupled with the economic encirclement and suppression between NATO and Russia will drag down the development of Europe, and this shall be a prolonged trend. When Europe is in the state of getting ready for war, foreseeably it will not be able to devote too much of its energy to economic progress. Neither will such a Europe have the leisure to see the development in art and culture, nor will its geopolitical environment be attractive to capital.

In the future long-term strategic confrontation, Russia will of course be "denationized". However, Russia can also use Ukraine as a lever to continue holding on to Europe and keep it under the shadow of war. Given the depth of the contradictions between Russia, NATO, and the United States, even if a concession agreement is reached on the Ukraine issue with a certain balance of interests, the geopolitical antagonism and animosity between the two sides will be difficult to eliminate in the short term.

Final analysis conclusion:

All indications point toward Europe's long-term prospects will be bleak. A Europe encroached by the shadow of war will be at a prolonged disadvantage. This is the tragedy of Europe and the darkest hour of a world dominated by frenzied geopolitics.