With the war in Ukraine still raging on, it is not just Russia and Ukraine directly fighting on the battlefields, Poland and other Eastern European countries too are close to participating in the war. For instance, in addition to supplying a large number of weapons to Ukraine, Poland also provides military bases for the training of Ukrainian troops. Meanwhile, Lithuania bans the transit of certain goods between Russia and Kaliningrad. Other countries in Europe are also affected to different degrees. As the continent where the war takes place, Europe will inevitably be impacted significantly.
Other than these points of concern, what are the U.S. geostrategic pursuits in this war? How does it define and envision the present and future of this war? ANBOUND's founder Kung Chan believes that this is an important issue that needs to be studied and evaluated.
On the basis of continuous information tracking, Chan has provided the following simple assessments of the U.S. geostrategy in the war:
First, the boundaries of the war will remain restricted to Ukraine, which means that the security situation of the war is within certain border limitations. This is conducive to the control of the U.S., the political manipulations and persuasions of the American government, and its domestic politics. In other words, attempts to expand the boundaries of the war beyond Ukraine will be met with countermeasures and pressures from the U.S.
Second, the U.S. intends to use the war to consolidate the dominance of the Anglo-American Axis, similar to what happened during and after World War II. While the transatlantic partnership between the U.S. and Europe is often mentioned, it is only a minor supporting force compared to the Anglo-American Axis. Under this new backdrop, arguably the U.S. simply wants European powers like Germany, France, Italy, etc., that were dominant in the past not to mess things up.
Third, France and Germany are aware of the impacts and pressures of this war on old Europe, and they will lose the status of great powers they once enjoyed. Therefore, these two countries do not provide full cooperation with the Anglo-American Axis, or at least they only give lip service. All in all, France and Germany are not unwilling to support Ukraine, nor are they really afraid of Russia, but these factors can only be described as "occasional". For these two countries, the biggest problem is getting them off the center of the global stage.
Fourth, the war in Ukraine is a testing ground for American concepts of future warfare. From a military and technical standpoint, the U.S. has so far been successful. The U.S. is experimenting and observing multi-domain warfare, aerospace integration, digital equipment, large-scale system operations and others in Ukraine. That being said, it has not poured in all its effort. As for Russia, if it is seen purely from the perspective of war, the Russian army's military equipment and combat concepts have been proven to be a failure. Without the support of space and air intelligence, modern warfare simply cannot be fought.
Fifth, any attempt at globalization would fail. The end of globalization has now been exacerbated by the geopolitical upheaval caused by the war in Ukraine. Global multilateral mechanisms such as the WTO and WHO and other international organizations have become pointless, especially in global issues. In contrast, there may be opportunities for new, smaller, and tighter regional organizations. Indeed, in this latest development in the world situation, some new regional and small multilateral organizations are being established.
Sixth, financial and price shocks are bound to occur in the world in reflection of drastic geostrategic adjustments. Geopolitical turmoil is comparable to the collision of the earth's plates in geology. If there are movements in the tectonic plates and large gaps appear, earthquakes or volcanic eruptions would happen. The same is true of the current geopolitical turmoil like the war in Ukraine, which will give rise to structural implications and bring about shocks to the world.
Seventh, there is the prospect and possibility of secret negotiations between the U.S. and Russia. From a geopolitical point of view, the essence of the Russia-Ukraine war is a geo-game between Russia and the U.S. As the side being affected the most by the war, Ukraine is naturally reluctant to cede its territories for negotiations, while Russia is unwilling to be stuck in the quagmire of war. On the other hand, the U.S. certainly would not sacrifice itself to help Ukraine, as the premise of its help should be that it would be benefited from such action. Hence, in this complex situation, the possibility of secret negotiations between the U.S. and Russia does exist.
It should be remembered that, in the eyes of the U.S., Russia is not the foremost "enemy", but only an "imminent short-term crisis". To the U.S., its principal long-term competitor is China. If Russia and the U.S. negotiate secretly and reach some kind of agreement, the world's geopolitical landscape will potentially change dramatically. Once Russia is stabilized through negotiations in Europe, it could turn its attention to Asia in the East. Changes in this pattern will unquestionably have a huge impact on China. Considering such a possibility, China needs to pay attention to it in advance, actively participate and seek the opportunity to engage in it.
Final analysis conclusion:
The war in Ukraine has brought about an immense impact on the world. At the same time, it has become a testing ground and a time window for major powers to adjust their geostrategies. As the pre-eminent global power, the U.S. is observing and using the war to adjust its geostrategic deployment, and significantly strengthen its dominance and control of the Anglo-American Axis. The great changes in the geopolitical pattern will potentially have a huge impact on many countries in the world, including China.
