Some would argue that in 2021, global COVID-19 pandemic control was still in its infancy. However, from the beginning of 2022, certain governments have been progressively removing some prohibitions and regulatory mechanisms.
Western countries, like the United Kingdom, Denmark, Sweden, and Australia, are among the first to make such moves. Since February 1, Denmark has lifted most pandemic restrictions and control measures, and no longer classifies COVID-19 as "a socially critical disease". Lena Hallengren, the Swedish Minister of Health and Social Affairs, officially declared on February 9 that the pandemic in Sweden is "over". From February 10 onwards, bars and restaurants are permitted to operate past 11 pm, with no constraint on guest headcount. Indoor venue capacity restrictions and vaccine passports have been dropped after the appearance of the Omicron variant. Most COVID-19 testing rules are also being scrapped. Sweden became the first country to announce that the Pandemic is over.
The "coexisting with COVID-19" approach will be announced on February 21 by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and the UK government wants to eliminate limitation laws a month early. As part of the UK's plan to coexist with the Covid-19 virus, its government also intends to bring an end to the daily case updates, including death tolls, as early as mid-April 2022 (i.e., by Easter) at the latest. According to an official source, the action taken is based on scientific research, which shows that while the Omicron variety is highly transmissible, the mortality rate is significantly lower than the Delta variant. This gives the Omicron flu-like characteristics. Statistics indicate that the UK's COVID-19 fatality rate has dropped from 3% in the winter of 2020 to 0.15% by the end of December 2021. By comparison, the death rate for seasonal flu in the UK is about 0.1%. At the same time, the number of hospitalized and critically ill patients in the UK has also continuously declined recently. The number of newly confirmed cases in a single day has moderately dropped from more than 200,000 at the peak to tens of thousands.
Vaccination, according to several medical professionals, is one of the most important reasons for the gradual opening up in Western countries. Nearly 84% of the population over 12 years old in the UK have now received at least two doses of the COVID-19 vaccine. Among those who have been vaccinated in the UK, more than 80% have received a booster shot. Certain Western nations, including those that had previously enacted stringent pandemic restriction and control measures, have progressively reduced some criteria and reopened international borders as a result of their faith in vaccines and their assessment of a relatively modest viral lethality. For example, the Daily Telegraph announced on February 9 that Australia's borders will reopen to fully vaccinated travelers on February 21 after nearly two years of shutdown. The country would adopt a new policy of coexisting with the novel coronavirus, along with easing in restrictions. This means that the pandemic will soon be treated similarly to a flu outbreak. On a worldwide scale, there is a new trend of coexisting with COVID-19 due to the rising cost of restriction control and a clear reduction in the fatality rate from the contraction of the virus. Foreseeably, there will be more countries relaxing their traveling regulations, spending, and other economic activities. The developed countries, supported by universal immunization and medical conditions, might move ahead with the new normal.
However, China does not take a similar path. Given the huge disparities in pandemic restriction policies, China still adopts a strict policy of "dynamic clearing". The consideration, on the one hand, is made based on a few practical factors, such as a large population base, large number of risk groups, inadequate medical facilities, and relatively low protection from the country's own vaccines. On the other hand, this also involves a difference in the country's view on the novel coronavirus and how it perceives the issue of life and death.
According to the current situation, if other countries continue to open up while China maintains rigid regulations, the gap in pandemic control between China and the rest of the globe would inevitably expand. For China, the gap in pandemic restriction policies with some countries and regions such as Europe and the United States would become even wider. As researchers from ANBOUND have mentioned in the past, strict pandemic preventive policies were appropriate at the peak of the severity of the pandemic. However, as the situation changes, China should adjust its policies accordingly. Otherwise, given the severe constraint with the outside world and economic interactions, insisting on strict regulations for a long period will affect the country's national economy and social development. We believe that China needs to change its COVID-19 related measures to synchronize with the shifting pandemic conditions. Some related decision-making notions should also be amended correspondingly.
First, China should admit that the novel coronavirus cannot be eliminated and accept the objective reality of its long-term coexistence with humans. The pandemic would inevitably become endemic and will not disappear completely. Historically, such an outcome is not unexpected. Some scientists speculate that the common cold virus today might also have originated from a past pandemic. In a world where humankind coexists with COVID-19, we might get a booster injection every year, similar to how we deal with the influenza virus, however, we could still be infected after the dose.
Second, the goal of "zero COVID-19 cases" is really something unachievable. The "dynamic clearing" approach should not be treated as the sole priority target in pandemic-related measures. Instead, the focus should be on preventing COVID-19 from becoming a public health threat. China needs to practice "public policy-based pandemic restrictions", with the purpose of not causing losses to the public, instead of "medical pandemic restriction" which is the complete elimination of the virus.
Third, it would be necessary for China to consider adjusting its pandemic measures and control standards by phases and prepare for the future when the world opens up and returns to normal. ANBOUND has previously proposed fine-tuning the country's COVID-19 policies in stages. China could relax one level of pandemic restriction and control after the Winter Olympics and the national "Two Sessions". In this process, on the one hand, China should strengthen the research on COVID-19 treatment medications, and on the other hand, it needs to closely observe the development and changes of the pandemic situation.
Fourth, even if China gradually opens up, a complete scrap of pandemic control might not be possible. China still needs to put forward certain requirements on vaccination, mask-wearing in public, and recovery in production and daily life. However, the country will need to revise its take on lockdown, either complete or partial, to restore the domestic production and livelihood to normal as soon as possible.
Final analysis conclusion:
The world outside China is beginning to move towards a new normal as other governments increasingly ease up on pandemic limitation and control measures, and decide to "coexist with COVID-19". With these changes in the external environment, China will also need to adjust its relevant policies, both taking scientific means of disease prevention and control into consideration, while at the same time maintaining its economic activities and the gradual return to normal.
