The chaotic situation in the Biden administration is also obvious to all. Within this, there are five policy signals related to China:
1. General Mark Milley's phone call incident: General Milley was exposed by the American media to privately disclose to China that the United States would not attack it. At the same time, he also assured China that if China and the United States are in war, he would notify China. Milley was forced to admit that this was true, but he believed that he was doing his responsibility. With this however, the world now sees the United States actually has dual-attitudes towards China, one that is public, and one that is undisclosed.
2. General John E. Hyten's speech: General Hyten is the vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States Armed Forces. He openly and clearly emphasized that the strategic goal of the United States is to never go to war with China, shocking the world and subverting all the U.S. strategic policies in the past. It is worth noting that the U.S.' "no waging war" strategy is true not only towards China, but also between the U.S. and Russia.
3. Janet Yellen's speech: After Yellen became Secretary of the Treasury, she expressed her dissatisfaction with the U.S.-China trade agreement under the Trump administration. In addition, she has publicly expressed her intention to visit China on many occasions. As the Secretary of the Treasury of the United States, Yellen understands China's important position in the world. As an economist, she is very likely to understand the world situation from the perspective of economics, thus promoting the contact between the United States and China and strengthening bilateral relations.
4. Speech Gina Raimondo: U.S. Secretary of Commerce Raimondo recently stated that she will seek to improve the commercial ties between the United States and China. While tensions between the two countries on national security and human rights issues are on the rise, she still believes that the two countries can benefit from each other. This of course, is another obvious policy signal.
5. The settlement of the Meng Wanzhou incident: The incident has been delayed for a long time, and its status in geopolitics has begun to decline significantly. The U.S.' actions in this matter show its support for China's current political structure, and that it is eager to change China's position at any cost so that the latter could start negotiations with it.
Other than these incidents, the evacuation of troops from Afghanistan and its consequences have forced the United States to face the changes in the situation in the world, a world that it can no longer dominate. It has lost the trust of many countries in the world, and can only get closer ties with Britain and Australia. The hastiness of the Biden administration's actions is unfathomable to not only China and Europe, even the Republicans and Democrats fail to understand it.
After coming to power, Biden has tried to seek innovation in all aspects, attempting to find a way different from Trump, showing the ambition and ability of his professional team. They produce write-ups, discuss their opinions, meet various authorities and experts, so as to establish their position. They hoped that while maintaining the unique and strong position of the United States, they could maintain the demeanor that surpasses Trump and win the respect of the world. Obviously, Biden's team has failed in this regard. Not only that it has to inherit Trump's practices in many aspects, but they would encounter huge troubles with just slight changes in these practices.
On the issue of U.S.-China relations, the Biden administration will substantially choose to accept the Kissingerian position, which is to coexist with China and recognize its status in the world. This is not because of the validity of Kissingerian view, but because the theoretical literacy and actual standard of the Biden administration and its members are limited to the framework of realism.
As analyzed by ANBOUND previously, Biden wants to be respected, yet this respect cannot come from the Congress, nor from the media or think tanks and scholars, and not even from the military grassroots, but only from some of the general public. A key geopolitical judgment is that in the face of various challenges, the Biden administration and its team cannot make innovations, neither does the existing theoretical system in the United States support such innovations. The language that Biden understands and almost everything that Biden's team has learned is nothing more than the realism that formed before and after the Cold War in geopolitics. Therefore, within 2-3 years, China can continue maintaining its position without fear of the pressure of the United States.
Any unexpected incident in the U.S. can disrupt the American political system, as it is ill equipped to deal with such shock. This is a natural defect of the American education system and political system. Whether it is Afghanistan or the COVID-19 pandemic, as long as they encounter risk, the U.S.' political system and environment for cultivating talents will be completely at a loss. Its computer simulations, quantitative analysis, mathematical models, and ample theoretical theories will not be of much help. Of course, the United States does not lack talents and insightful experts, but the problem with the United States is that its political system, which has been fixed since the end of World War II, has become formalized and exclude any policy dissents.
Such a window period is very precious to China. Now it depends on China to take its moves so as to win solid foundation for global status and geographic space. In fact, there has never been such an obvious window period, hence this is also a deeply challenging geopolitical issue for China.
