Tuesday, October 18, 2016
Too early to assert China's economy is in L-shaped growth
ANBOUND
After 54 months, China's producer price index (PPI) shows its first rise; the market is getting more and more optimistic on China and even the global economic growth in the third quarter, some even consider this to be economic L-shaped growth. However, Anbound research team believes that to determine the economic turning point, structural changes should be considered as well, especially stabilizing effects brought by economic stimulus; these effects should include if there is recovery in the private sector’s investment on real economy, and if there is growth in public consumption while there is an increase of total retail sales of consumer goods. It is too early to assert that the economy is in L-shaped trend; businesses and local governments need to be vigilant about the risks associated with early expansion of production capacity.