In the past year since the "811" exchange rate reform, RMB has brought about bidirectional fluctuations, there was an increase in the flexibility of the exchange rate, the market expectations of the RMB exchange rate have stabilized for the time being, and the pressure from the outflow of capital and the shrinking of foreign reserves has significantly decreased.

The ANBOUND research team believes that under the conditions that the RMB exchange rate stabilises, the RMB is officially included in the SDR, and the RMB treasury yields are higher than foreign sovereign debt—especially under the conditions that there is a great risk in the external economic environment—the foreign attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets will be on the rise and the scale of international capital flowing into the treasury will expand rapidly.

Even though RMB has the potential to become a safe haven for international capital, an important prerequisite is that the supply-side reform achieves substantial progress and there is a significant improvement in the market expectations.