Dovish Shift In Markets′ Fed Rate Hike Expectations, Favorable to Short Term Stabilization of Yuan
ANBOUND
On July 28, the Federal Reserve decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0.25% to 0.5% and reiterated that the economic conditions warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate.
Besides the United States has seen slow growth for three consecutive quarters and this has sparked fears of recession while making it less likely for the Federal Reserve to raise the rate in September.
The research team at ANBOUND Consulting suggests that the second quarter economic growth which was well below expectations has made the interest-rate hike in September less likely and the market generally believe that it is more likely for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rate at the end of the year.
Recently, the devaluation pressure on the yuan has eased considerably and the market appears to have a higher level of tolerance on the adjustment of yuan exchange rate. This coupled with the continuous inflow of international funds into the nation's capital market, in the long run, is beneficial to both the internationalization of yuan and the reform of capital account.