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Thursday, July 14, 2016
Don't Put High Hope on Investment-Driven Growth
ANBOUND

The National Bureau of Statistics will be releasing the economic data for the first half of the year on July 15.

A number of agencies predict that the GDP growth for the second quarter will be around 6.7%.

Currently, many parties are putting their hopes on investment to drive China's economy and they hope that the familiar model of 'fiscal expansion + investment growth’ will prop up the short-term economic growth.

The research team at ANBOUND Consulting, however, is of the view that there are two problems with such hope, firstly, the investment growth continue to decline and, if such trend continues, what will drive the economic growth in the second and third quarter ?

Secondly, China has begun the transformation of its economic structure; consumption expenditure has become the main driving force of economic growth, accounting for 66.4% of GDP growth in 2015.

While the main driving force of China’s economic growth has shifted towards consumption, the call to turn China’s policy focus back to investment is simply contradictory.

Structural adjustment is the trend and in this year, we cannot place too much hope in expecting the investment to drive economic growth.

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