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Tuesday, September 14, 2021
U.S.-Saudi Relations may Deteriorate Drastically
ANBOUND

Earlier in September, U.S. President Joe Biden ordered the publication of the documents of FBI investigation on the 9/11 attacks, in addition to directing the Department of Justice to review them. By this order, the FBI released a newly declassified document on the attacks, which involved allegations that the Saudi government supported the hijackers.

However, the FBI's release of the partially edited 16-page document detailing the contact between the hijackers and several Saudi officials on the 20th anniversary of the attack did not conclude if the Saudi government is an accomplice in the attack that killed 3000 people. In this document, the FBI stated that 15 of the 19 hijackers were from Saudi Arabia and that the hijackers had associates in the United States, but there was no evidence that the Saudi Arabian government was involved.

The Saudi Embassy in the United States said last week that Saudi Arabia welcomes the release of documents related to the 9/11 attacks, and said in a statement that any allegations of Saudi Arabia's involvement in the 9/11 attacks are untrue. According to media reports such as Agence France-Presse, this 16-page heavily edited document dated April 4, 2016, is mainly the records of an interview of an applicant for U.S. citizenship in 2009 and 2015. Before the 911 attacks, it appears the informant had several contacts with some Saudi citizens and together participated to provided assistance to the first two 9/11 hijackers who arrived in the United States.

The document records details of the contacts and meetings between the Saudi citizen Omar al-Bayoumi and the 9/11 hijackers, Nawaf al-Hazmi and Khalid al-Mihdhar who arrived in Southern California. Bayoumi allegedly studied in Los Angeles, but the FBI suspected that he was a Saudi intelligence agent who was deeply involved in providing translation, travel, accommodation and financial assistance to the two hijackers. Shortly after arriving in Southern California in February 2000, Hazmi and Mihdhar met Bayoumi in a restaurant. Bayoumi then helped them rent an apartment in San Diego.

The declassified document corroborates the reported relationship between the two hijackers and Fahad al-Thumairy, a former Saudi Consulate official who helped lead the King Fahd Mosque. The document also stated that the confidential source told the FBI in addition to the official identification as a student, Bayoumi had a high status in the Saudi Consulate. It also mentioned that the source's wife stated that Bayoumi often talked about "jihad".

Although this document does not conclude that the Saudi government launched the 9/11 attack against the United States, its content clearly reveals the close relationship between the intelligence personnel in the Saudi diplomatic agency and the Al-Qaeda organization, which may lead to a drastic change in the relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia.

Researchers at ANBOUND have noticed a new trend that may affect the relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia. The American Patriot missile system originally deployed at the Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia is located about 115 kilometers (70 miles) southeast of the Saudi capital Riyadh. Since Yemen's Houthi armed rebels attacked the Saudi oil production center in 2019, the base has received thousands of U.S. troops. However, it is worth noting that the latest satellite photos released by Associated Press show that the United States has, in recent weeks, withdrawn its most advanced Patriot missile defense system from Saudi Arabia, and satellite images show that some missile racks in the area have been dismantled, but related activities and vehicles can still be seen. The high-resolution satellite photos taken on September 10 show that the missiles at this location were empty and there was no visible activity.

In this regard, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby has admitted to the Associated Press that certain air defense assets have been redeployed. The Saudi Ministry of Defense also admitted that the United States has withdrawn from the missile defense system, but stated that the Saudi army is able to defend its territory, seas and airspace, and protect its people. These familiar clichés also appeared between the U.S. and the Afghan government, especially before the U.S. military evacuated from Afghanistan. Researchers at ANBOUND believe that this matter could indicate the relationship between the United States and the Saudi government has deteriorated drastically.

Researchers at ANBOUND tend to connect and analyze the two seemingly unrelated issues to define the current and future relationship between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. The withdrawal of the U.S. military from Afghanistan already indicates that the U.S. will stay away from Eurasia. If the relationship between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia is further transformed, the follow-up will be the departure of the U.S. from Iraq. Once this level is reached, the U.S.' presence in Eurasia will only remain in the NATO region, and this region of influence is actually very unstable due to the subtle attitude of the European Union towards the U.S., thereby shrinking the room for the U.S. in the region, at least far less than when NATO attacked Yugoslavia. If things evolve to this level, then it is certain that the U.S. at that time will be very different from the U.S. we have known historically.

Regarding the issue of the relationship between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, there is no clarity in the reasons for Biden's decision. Is it to emphasize to the American people that the mastermind of the 9/11 attacks was Saudi Arabia and that the previous U.S. Presidents were mistaken in attacking the wrong targets? Does that mean only Biden was right? Or is it based on Biden's so-called strategy, which is to leave all the Eurasian regions and allow the expansion and rise of regional geopolitical powers such as Russia, Turkey, and India? All these remain to be seen, yet in such changes that may affect the world's geopolitical situation, one cannot rule out that Biden and his team have not considered all these thoughts at all.

Final analysis conclusion:

The documents from the U.S. government's 9/11 investigation recently made public involving the issue whether the Saudi government might have aided the hijackers. U.S. forces have also taken down the Patriot missile system, which was stationed at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia. These are warning signs that may portend a serious deterioration in relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia. It will have a significant impact on global geopolitics if the United States leaves the Middle East after Afghanistan.

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