Against the backdrop of rising global vaccination roll out, recent data on COVID-19 infections in countries around the world are still on the rise. For example, from July 26 to 30, the number of new confirmed cases in the United States was around 66,000-113,000 per day; in India, the number of new confirmed cases has remained above 40,000 per day for the past month. The Delta variant, which is more resistant to high temperatures, is now spreading in many countries. Israeli statistics show that the effectiveness of Pfizer's vaccine drops to 39% after a certain period of vaccination. Fortunately, the case fatality rate of COVID-19 has been decreasing in various countries, such as the United Kingdom and Israel, which both have vaccination coverage close to 70%, and their case fatality rate has dropped from a high of 18% last year to 0.1% in the latest week. This fatality rate is close to that of influenza.
Figure 1: Weekly confirmed cases by region of the world
Source: World Health Organization website, https://covid19.who.int/ (data as of August 2, 2021).
Figure 2: Recent outbreaks in China
Source: Internet.
China, which has been successful in preventing and controlling the pandemic in the early stage, has recently been somewhat frazzled by the localized transmission of imported Delta variant. Since the outbreak at Nanjing airport on July 20, the outbreak has spread to more than 20 places in 14 provinces across the country. A total of 98 new confirmed cases were reported in 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities under the direct administration of central government) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps on August 1, including 43 imported cases and 55 local cases. Given China's low daily confirmed cases in the past, the recent increase of dozens of confirmed domestic cases a day is considered to be minor outbreak.
Since early last year, ANBOUND researchers' tracking studies indicate that the recent resurgence of new confirmed cases will generally exhibit the characteristics of a seasonal influenza, that is, an outbreak in winter and spring while easing in summer and fall. For instance, the new confirmed cases in the Delta-ridden India peaked in May, but have since plummeted and remained stable. The outbreak in the United States and other countries is not too far off from this. Now, some are anxious about the outbreak, mainly because they are worried that the vaccine will not work when the outbreak occurs in autumn and winter.
An objective analysis of the effectiveness of the vaccine reveals that it may not be the case. For example, the vaccine itself has maximum effectiveness of 95%, which means that 500 out of 10,000 people are likely to be infected even if they are vaccinated. If the effectiveness of the vaccine is only 70%, then the number of breakthrough infections even for fully vaccinated people would be even higher. Hence, theoretically, 3,000 would be infected out of 10,000 vaccinated people. It is even more dangerous to have a vaccine that is not highly effective, as some might have the misperception that they are safe after the vaccination, and do not follow measures like masking and social distancing.
Vaccination is one of our most effective weapons against COVID-19, and it has played a major role in relieving the world from the burden of the pandemic. However, vaccines alone do not provide long-term solution. Chan Kung, the founder of ANBOUND, has warned that we should not focus on vaccines alone, as this is the wrong strategy. Given that viruses cannot be fully controlled by a vaccine, it may be even more important to research on medication treatment. As with influenza, treatment is more important than vaccination. Different from the views of many government departments and the media on the COVID-19, Chan Kung has been treating it as influenza for the past two years. Given that vaccines are unlikely to eliminate the coronavirus, medication will become even more crucial.
Most of the world's medical resources are now devoted to the development of vaccines. According to incomplete statistics, there are now dozens of vaccines in development around the world. In terms of the use of government resources and market resources for vaccines, this requires a significant investment of resources. In terms of benefits, if today's world requires constant vaccination against outbreaks, the production of vaccines with short development cycles and high profit margins could effectively replace the long and resource-intensive development of new drugs. As things stand, the capital needed to drive vaccine development will either come from national capital or market capital. But when it comes to saving lives, vaccines alone would not solve the problem.
Final analysis conclusion:
As vaccination roll out reaches a certain level, the focus of medical resources should shift to medication rather than vaccines.
