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Friday, July 23, 2021
A Perspective on the Chain of Geopolitical Analysis
Chan Kung

The importance of geopolitics remains underestimated, even as the world enters a new era that comparatively, the role of finance, economics, real estate, and the stock market is increasingly less prominent.

The deductive logic goes like this:

Information + event --> geopolitics --> policy core circle --> political reaction --> politics --> public opinion --> economics --> exchange rate --> currency --> finance --> properties --> wealth --> enterprise --> household

The value of an issue often depends on its position in the chain. For example, "nationalism in China" is an issue of "public opinion", which is in the middle of the chain, so it is not important one, or at least not as important as many of the previous links. Another example is enterprises such as Didi Chuxing, Evergrande, and Tomorrow Holding. Although the business owners of such entities take themselves very seriously, they are of little importance based on their position in the chain.

It appears that politics is not as important as one might think, because there are many things ahead of politics that determine how "politics" changes. It is important to note that it is the factors at the front of the chain that determine the "politics" and not the other way around.

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