On July 13, the U.S. Embassy in China released a message saying that the former chargé d'affaires had resigned and returned to the United States. The most important part of the message, apparently, was the word "former," which meant that Robert W. Forden was no longer the chargé d'affaires and had probably returned to the United States. There was no prior information from any source about Forden's departure.
Following the departure of former Ambassador Terry Branstad, Forden led the U.S. Mission to China as chargé d'affaires from October 5, 2020 to July 11, 2021. During that period, China insisted on having an embassy and an ambassador in the United States, but the United States essentially lowered its diplomatic relations with China to the level of chargé d'affaires, which is the same level as the diplomatic relations with Taiwan.
One question is whether the recall of U.S. Charge d'affaires is intended to bring in a new ambassador to end the anomaly of more than a year without an ambassador, or at least if the U.S. would send a new charge d'affaires.
Such speculation is highly questionable. Although the Biden administration had considered sending a new ambassador to China in the past, and even considered the nomination, the U.S.-China communications have been very difficult since then, and it was even reported that Chinese officials rebuked the U.S. Secretary of State in Alaska. Then the nomination of the ambassador went nowhere. It is even possible that the U.S. may not even want to maintain diplomatic relations at the chargé d'affaires level in the rush to get Forden out of office and back home. Under normal circumstances, a new chargé d'affaires will be nominated at the same time when his or her predecessor steps down. Therefore, this situation appears to be extraordinary, and it is descending dramatically into a very precarious situation.
The question now may not be whether the United States will send diplomats. There are two big questions. The first concerns Hong Kong. The Biden administration has repeatedly given signals of plans to announce further sanctions related to Hong Kong. If so, the sanctions plan is expected to be harsh and wide-ranging, and the United States has kept the scale of its embassy in China to a minimum in anticipation of a Chinese response.
The second question concerns Taiwan. The United States may use a gradual and substantial downgrading of its relations with China to achieve a relative improvement in its relations with Taiwan. The current U.S.-Taiwan relationship is essentially a diplomatic relationship at the ministerial level. The U.S. Embassy in China, which exists in name only, has no ambassador, let alone chargé d'affaires.
We cannot rule out that the situation will be improved in the future, but as of now, the diplomatic relations between China and the United States are in a phase of substantive breakdown. If this situation continues, then Taiwan will be the biggest beneficiary in the future.