The situation in Afghanistan has fallen into an unprecedented quandary due to the withdrawal of the United States troops. As ANBOUND has previously analyzed, there is no unexpected development in Afghanistan. The landlocked country will only see more upheavals and the withdrawal of American military operations in the World-Island will only bring more impacts to the surrounding regions. While this largely owes to U.S. domestic political actions, it will in turn cause geopolitical turbulence to the world, which will cause major constraints on U.S. military operations worldwide. As it stands, it will be more challenging for the United States to take large-scale ground interventions in the future, as it may not be able to obtain strong support from its allies or even provide a reliable action plan. What the U.S. military can do in the future is only a few hit-and-run operations, which will be predominantly navy and air forces. The withdrawal of troops has exposed the trend that U.S. military forces will be predominantly air force from geopolitical perspective.

As far as the future relations between China and Afghanistan are concerned, it appears that China has made some preparations. In terms of border regions, instead of focusing on the country’s southeastern coastal areas, China will concern itself more on the western region. It is quite possible that Chinese military will make its presence in Afghanistan to gain more geopolitical bargaining chips.

It is worth noting that as the influence of Russia and China in Afghanistan becomes more prominent, the U.S. is bound to feel the pressure. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who led the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, would likely pay the price, and this may cause him to finally lose his position in the Department of State. Recently, White House press secretary Jen Psaki for the Biden administration has publicly revealed that she has the plan and schedule for her resignation. Blinken has shown many observable weaknesses from the beginning, and he will certainly pay for them in the future.