On June 16, Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Joe Biden convened at the La Grange Villa in Geneva, Switzerland. Present onsite was Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken. There were two sections in the talk, the first being smaller discussions, and the second are large scale meetings. Putin, Biden, Lavrov, and Blinken all attended the two-hour discussions, which touched on issues concerning strategic stability, trade relations, regional security and cyber security.
Biden and Putin both held separate press conferences after the talk. Based on the statements provided to the press by both conferences, ANBOUND believes that the U.S.-Russian leaders have arrived at some form of agreement.
First of all, both parties talked about nuclear negotiations and launched bilateral consultations on strategic stability. Putin said at a press conference after the summit that the United States and Russia for global strategic stability during the summit's conclusion. He also indicated that he has agreed to negotiate on strategic stability with Biden, namely the nuclear arsenals between both countries. Meanwhile, Biden has stated the United States and Russia will "embark together on an integrated bilateral Strategic Stability Dialogue in the near future", and it is the working-level officials, not the two presidents, will decide the composition, location and frequency of these talks. Biden added that the U.S. military and diplomatic experts will work together to gain control over new and dangerous weapons systems. A joint statement issued by the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that both sides "seek to lay the groundwork for future arms control and risk reduction measures".
Next, both countries' ambassadors will resume their diplomatic posts. Russian ambassador to the United States, Anatoly Antonov, and the U.S. ambassador to Russia, John Sullivan, have yet to return to their respective positions. Both ambassadors were recalled earlier this spring following Biden's announcement of a new round of U.S. sanctions aimed at punishing Russia's large-scale cyberattacks on the U.S. government agencies last year. This caused all consular operations, visas and other diplomatic services of the two countries to come to a halt. In turn, it had a knock-on effect on businesses, families, and aid groups that maintain contact in both countries.
Finally, both parties discussed the issue of cyber security. According to the U.S. statement, Biden and Putin talked in detail about cyber security issues including a framework of mutual understanding, which means attacks on targets like critical infrastructure will be taken more seriously by both countries. Biden stressed that certain critical infrastructure should be "off-limits" to cyberattack, and provided a list of 16 specific entities defined as critical infrastructure under the U.S. policy, from energy sector to water system. "We agreed to task experts in both our countries to work on specific understandings about what is off-limits," Biden said.
In the past month, there have been two targeted hacker attacks that directly affected U.S. companies. Both attacks, according to the U.S., were carried out by criminals believed to be located in Russia. The first attack happened in early May, which was an attack on Colonial Pipeline, the largest natural gas pipeline operator in the country. The attack forced the company to close approximately 5,500 miles of fuel pipelines, disrupting nearly half of the fuel supply on the east coast which resulted in gasoline shortages and aviation disruptions in the southeast. The second attack was launched by a different Russian cybercrime group towards JBS, the world's largest meat supplier. The company eventually paid the equivalent of US$11 million in ransom to the hackers, but not before it was briefly crippled and shut down its entire U.S. business. Putin avoided questions about these attacks, emphasizing that the attack behind Colonial Pipeline company had nothing to do with the Russian government. Biden reversed the question to Putin, which caused Putin to acknowledge that the issue was "extremely important".
While the two did agree on the issues above, they maintained their respective stance on issues concerning Navalny and Ukraine. However, this disagreement is not unexpected, nor has it worsened. In summary, both sides have the same views on the talks. Putin said at the press conference that his discussion with Biden was "fruitful" with "no hostility" between the two, and the talks were "constructive". Biden concurred, expressing that the talks were "positive". Both sides expressed a certain degree of appreciation to each other from a personal perspective. Putin thinks Biden is a thoughtful and constructive interlocutor. This is a significantly different message from before.
Tom Block, a policy strategist at Fundstrat, a Washington-based think tank, described the meeting as "a trip that put the U.S. on the same page as our allies all should add to Biden's image as a seasoned politician and leader, which is likely to be calming for market participants".
Based on various public information, we believe that the talk has a few key takeaways: (1) Biden and Putin had a constructive and respectful discussion, showing that the two hope to resolve existing problems amicably. (2) The talk between the leaders of the United States and Russia has laid the foundation for the further normalization of relations between the two sides, which is in line with both countries' strategic interests. Unlike before where both countries were at odds against each other, the summit has taken a significant turnaround. (3) It has brought clarity to the market and re-established the status of the United States and Russia as major powers in the world. It is also clear that the United States regards Russia as a major power with Putin as its leader, unlike how it sees China.
The meeting might only be the start of things, but it has brought clarity to the world and will continue to bring vital changes to the global geopolitical situation. For Russia, the normalization of relations with the United States is expected to reduce the United States' continued high pressure on Russia. In the field of geopolitics and geo-economics, it provides Russia with room to maneuver around, which explains why Putin opted to take the olive branch handed over by Biden. For the United States, the normalization of relations with Russia has positive significance, since the continued deterioration of relations with Russia is not in the strategic interests of the United States. The Biden administration also hopes to strike a degree of alliance with Russia by improving its relations with Russia. That said, this is not exactly a real alliance, but rather to reduce the intensity of strategic friction between the two.
The personal view of ANBOUND researchers is that if U.S.-Russian relations are normalized, it will certainly be a positive message to the world. For China however, it must also be noted that the improvement of such relations will ease the pressure on the United States, that it does not need to have frictions with Russia and China simultaneously. This means that the United States can focus more on "targeting" China. However, as ANBOUND pointed out in the past, China should clarify its own strategy, maintain its strategic determination, and refrain from passively fluctuating and responding to changes in the United States. Therefore, China needs to take a neutral view of the U.S.-Russia meeting.
Final analysis conclusion:
Biden and Putin's latest meeting was fruitful, and allowed the two to come to an agreement. This shows that both countries genuinely wish to resolve any existing problems that may stand between them. If this goes on, it will not only affect the geopolitical scene, but also how both countries would regard China. Hence, China needs to take note of this and maintain its strategic determination.
