On April 25, 2021, the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) failed to win any seats in the parliamentary by-elections in Hiroshima, Nagano, and Hokkaido. This is the first national election since Suga Yoshihide took the office as the Prime Minister in September 2020, and it is seen as the first opportunity for voters to judge his ability in handling the COVID-19 pandemic. Although the LDP’s setback in the by-election is unlikely to shake its re-election, various signs show that Suga’s attempt to be re-elected is not exactly optimistic. Under the current trend, there are fewer and fewer options left for this current Prime Minister.

First of all, looking at the domestic circumstance in Japan, it is difficult for Suga to reverse the current unfavorable situation before the general election. In fact, from past observations, researchers at ANBOUND have always believed that Suga’s response to domestic politics is a bit too slow, even in his handling of tricky situations like the announcement of the COVID-19 State of Emergency, vaccination, and the Tokyo Olympics. He is seen as late in making final conclusions, and the Japanese people have generally not buying into his decisions. More importantly, if Suga was not viewed positively in the past because of his ability to deal with domestic issues, now it has been an established fact that his administration is not regarded to be effective in responding to the pandemic, and it is difficult to change such perception in the short term.

For Japan, there are basically only two options for controlling the coronavirus outbreak: the first is to impose strict lockdown measures again to control the spread of the virus, the other is to vigorously promote vaccination to increase the level of herd immunity. Understandably, the first option means a downturn in the economic situation and even cancellation of the Olympic Games. In such a scenario, even if the Suga administration could control the outbreak, it would not boost his support rate too much. As for the current vaccination situation in Japan, compares with the United States, Singapore, Israel and other countries, the overall vaccination rate can only be equal to some African countries. As vaccines are in short supply, Japan actually does not have the basic conditions to substantially increase the vaccine penetration rate within the short period of time.

In terms of international relations, although Suga has made efforts in the Japan-U.S. talks and produced some substantive results in the international arena, opinion polls however show that this is insufficient to make up for his shortcomings. If Suga were to reverse the current unfavorable situation through foreign policy, most likely he needs to make strategic adjustments to Japan's current diplomatic strategy that emphasizes on balancing. To put it simply, under the current circumstances, there is actually only one possibility, which is to completely leaning towards the United States and adopt a fully antagonistic attitude on China. In a sense, this strategy may cater to mainstream public opinion in Japan, but it is not a practical one for Suga. First, similar strategies will be clearly opposed by most Japanese big corporations; second, this is equivalent to abandoning the strategy left by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Whether Suga has sufficient determination and if he could gain support from his party is also a question, and in all likelihood he might end up unable to please everyone. Suga’s plight was quite apparent during the Japan-U.S. summit. On the one hand, his diplomatic attitude has become more obvious; on the other hand, many high-level Japanese officials have to frequently explain their intentions to China. This shows that the Suga administration is unlikely to see more achievements before the election.

The terms of members of Japan's Lower House are due to expire on October 21 this year, and a general election must be held before the date. There are reports that the dissolution of the House of Representatives will occur in the autumn after the Olympics. This could only mean that there is not much time left for Suga to produce political achievements and changes. It may be a little bit too early to make any conclusion concerning the Japanese election, but it is clear that if Suga wants to be re-elected, his subsequent focus may no longer be the popular support rate, but to see how he could win over the factions that support him, and this involves Japan's current electoral system. Among them, the Shinzo Abe’s Hosoda faction appears to be relatively supportive, and the same can be said for the Nikai faction led by Toshihiro Nikai. However, the Aso faction led by Taro Aso is more variable, and it might turn to support Shigeru Ishiba or other candidates. While maintaining unity within LDP is Suga's main strength, given the generally unfavorable circumstances, at least for now his re-election is not exactly optimistic.

We have noticed that with the worsening of the COVID-19 situation in Japan and with the Olympics getting closer, the voice of opposition to the Olympics in Japan has gradually increased, which has created new pressure on Suga. International Olympic officials, Tokyo planners, and Suga himself all insist that the Olympics will be conducted in a "safe and secure" manner, yet the Japanese public opinion disagrees. A poll conducted by Yomiuri Shimbun from May 7 to 9 showed that 59% of people wanted to cancel the Olympics, while 39% believed that the Olympics should be held. Another poll conducted by TBS News found that 65% of people wanted to cancel or postpone the Olympics, 37% wanted to cancel the event completely, and 28% asked for another postponement. Suga stated on May 10 that he has never prioritize the Olympics. Interestingly, the TBS survey found that Suga's current public approval rate is 40%, close to the historically lowest point earlier this year.

The former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has long expressed his support for Suga's re-election and formed the public opinion of such within the party. He not only met with the main political power holders many times, but also instructed and encouraged younger politicians concerning election activities. Abe has also voiced out in a live TV show some time ago that “Suga should continue to serve as the Prime Minister”. Despite Abe's endorsement, various circumstances show that it remains hard for Suga to be re-elected.

Final analysis conclusion:

Japan's Liberal Democratic Party has failed to win any seat in by-elections for some regional parliamentary seats. This is a bad sign for the re-election of the current Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga. Suga's hesitation and ambiguity on issues such as diplomacy, COVID-19, and Olympics are weakening the trust of the Japanese public in him, and he may find being re-elected is a very tough battle that he has little chances to win.