China's A-share market has been rising since last July. However, it has faced the supply shock since April due to registration system reform. In the opinion of ANBOUND research team, the future trend will highly depend on three forces: Incremental capital entrance, stock fund competition and supply shock distribution. With the effect of supply shock and strict regulation shows, the probability that A-share market meets its peak is also growing. Without support of economic fundamentals,the possibility that bubbles burst is increasing quickly.