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  • Guan Tao (管涛)
    Born : November , 1970Gender : Male

Senior researcher of China finance 40 Forum (former deputy director of balance of payments Department of State Administration of foreign exchange)


September 1988 to July 1992, he was an undergraduate in the Department of world economy, Wuhan University, with a bachelor's degree in economics;

January 1998 to December 1998, he was supported by an Australian Asian Scholarship Program sponsored by an international monetary fund of Japan to study at the National Development Research Center (NCDs) of Australian National University and received a master's degree in development economics;

January 2001 to July 2004, he received his Ph.D. in economics from the school of economics, Beijing Normal University.


In 1992, he joined the State Administration of foreign exchange and worked in the Department of policy research and international statistics. In 2009, he became the director of the Department of balance of payments.

He has been engaged in the research of currency convertibility, balance of payments, exchange rate policy and international capital flow for a long time, and participated in the major scheme design of China's foreign exchange system reform since 1994.


In 1997, he co-published "China's foreign exchange system reform and RMB free exchange". The article "the role of exchange rate system in the Asian financial crisis and Its Enlightenment to China" won the first prize of "99 'China Youth Financial Forum", the article "on foreign exchange balance and national treatment of foreign-invested enterprises", the first prize of "99 youth excellent paper of the people's Bank of China system", the review of RMB exchange rate policy and several new issues in foreign exchange management Question was selected as one of the outstanding achievements of Social Science in the eighth five year plan.

Notable Works|Publications

He has been engaged in policy research on foreign exchange for a long time. He is active and has made remarkable achievements. Adhering to the research style of combining theory with practice and rigorous scholarship, he wrote a lot of work reports, and published more than 200 articles in the people's daily, economic daily, financial times, financial research, international financial research, management world, international trade, Guangdong finance and other newspapers and magazines, becoming a special comment of many newspapers and magazines Member or special contributor.

Main Opnions

"The next step for China to hedge against external shocks is mainly to expand domestic demand policy. The policy responses are: reform and opening up, expanding domestic demand, innovative development, disintegration, multilateral rules. The enterprise's response is: diversified import and export market, foreign investment and output capacity, active development of domestic market and transformation of foreign trade development mode. "


Guan Tao said that the long-term negative of net error and omission is indeed related to the phenomenon of capital flight, because theoretically, if net error and omission are mainly caused by statistical reasons, then their direction should be the random distribution of positive and negative, and if the long-term positive or negative of net error and omission, it may reflect the unrecorded hot money inflow or capital flight problem. But he also said that in practice, it needs to be very careful to make the above judgment based on the negative net error and omission. For example, from 2009 to 2013 (except 2012), when the pressure of capital inflow was large, the net error and omission also showed a negative value.

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