Newsletter By 2019-10-11
The core focus of China's current concern is that the concessions of international trade should not be positioned as a certain kind of failure. This is because once the outcome of the trade negotiations is positioned in that way, it will mean that the overall situation of China and the United States would be fixed. Therefore, ANBOUND's chief researcher Mr Chen Gong points out the U.S.-China trade negotiations will not have clear results, and there will be no clear comprehensive agreement seen in the usual trade negotiations. "Instead, there will only be constantly changing scopes and contents of the negotiations; in addition, there could also be reduced versions of partial agreements. "
>>The crisis of the dollar's liquidity reflects market imbalance and the failure of policy adjustment under the Fed's rate easing. This risk means that reaching the critical point of the capital market is imminent. ANBOUND economists earlier warned that global downturn has taken shape, and various "black swans" also gather in October, with an unprecedented risk level full of uncertainties. Robert Shiller, the Nobel laureate in economics, even believes that criticisms on the Fed's decision to cut interest rates have caused unexpected damages to investor psychology, exacerbating pessimistic expectations in the market and leading to liquidity imbalances and stagnation. In addition, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has also warned that a financial crisis is imminent. In an unprecedented state of excess capital around the world, an outbreak of risk can have very serious consequences.
>>From the view of 'Macro Finance', this is a manifestation of the geo-politicization of currency competition which inadvertently has an impact on Hong Kong's status as an international financial center and an offshore RMB center. ANBOUND's proposal that the internationalization of the RMB should be considered in the development and competition of geo-economy and geo-currency. The intensification of Hong Kong issue can also be seen as a manifestation of currency-based geopolitical competition. This is even after the current global 'currency competition' has emerged from the shift of the single monetary system of the U.S. dollar towards a multi-geographical monetary system. Inevitably, it affects the layout and progress on RMB's internationalization, as well as Hong-Kong's role and function that can play.
>>ANBOUND will host
2019 Pedestrian Oriented Development Forum. This is an international gathering in Chengdu of China. The purpose of the forum is to improve the Chinese urban governance, increase policy consideration and economic interests building more attentions to people, to bring “confused” cities return to a humanistic path, retrieve cities’ soul and enhance vitality as a whole. As the organizer of this event, we are very pleased to invite distinguished scholars, business leaders and senior government officials to share their views and expertise to understand the opportunities and challenges associated with the people's cities.
Date: 08 November 2019 (Friday) Time: 9:00am to 6:00pm Venue: Fairmont Chengdu, China. Ticket Online: Please email to
pod@anbound.com. For more info please click
here.
China Observation is a publication prepared by ANBOUND researchers based on the tracking research and analysis of open-source information. This publication covers both developmental and public policies concerning China's macroeconomy, industry, finance, urban development, free trade and globalization, geo-political issues and international relations. Through independent observation and analysis,
China Observation provides an independent window into the Chinese marketplace and help the world to understand the rapidly evolving Chinese economy and the implications of that evolution for the US and the world. We are offering you the opportunity to preview the issues free of charge.
>>