11 years after the global financial crisis took place in 2008, the global economy is once again experiencing an overall slowdown. The world economy is facing a crisis to a considerable extent, a “man-made disaster” caused by extreme policies. Dynamically tracking the progress of the trade war and the changes in the global economy shows that the dark clouds of an impending global economic recession are becoming denser. Currently, many of corporations are worrisome not only the manufacturing industry affected, as stock prices, the exchange rate, SMEs and even the future consumer economy will be greatly impacted. If the trade war between China and the United States does not stop urgently, the outlook for the global economy will be quite pessimistic. In case that there is any destructive intervention, there would be a bigger possibility for the world economy to face a synchronized recession, ANBOUND researchers warned. >>
According to consistent information tracking, undoubtedly, the long-term trade war will change the global economic structure. The United States, China and the EU have mutual structural contradictions, and are likely to become the three "cores" of the future economic structure. Competing games will bring mutual harm. China should choose a rational way to establish the "1+3" structure and safeguard its own interests, as ANBOUND proposed earlier. >>
If the U.S.-China trade negotiations fail to achieve results, China's economic growth will not decline endlessly. Even if the growth falls to the level of 4%, the economy will not collapse. The 4% level may be the new bottom line for China’s economic growth, and for the market’s confidence in the Chinese economy. Under such pressures, China will shift its focus internally to its domestic market, and further isolate itself from the U.S. economy. China's economy will then rely more on domestic consumption, as well as strengthening its social and economic integration. However, the results of such moves by China are certainly not beneficial to the global interests that the United States stresses. >>
ESI’s experts and ANBOUND teams collaborate to give their insights on the future of technology, so we can offer both a US and Chinese perspective. They focused on four major topics: smart cities, jobs of the future, autonomous vehicles, and tourism-related apps. Last week, ANBOUND staff and ESI’s Steve Wray and Sidney Wong presented their thoughts on how jobs will change, and what skills will be required for the jobs of the future. To view more details, please click here.
China is evolving from a production-based to a consumer-oriented society. This not only brings about changes in new forms of the economy and growth patterns, but also requires governmental transformation at all levels from central to local. ANBOUND's researchers suggest that the focus of society and market should shift away from familiar investors, financial institutions, as well as approval bodies to consumers. For the formation and expansion of the consumer market, it would be necessary to consider the demands of ordinary consumers, rather than formulating policies from the perspective of producers alone. That requires government officials to change their thinking and adjust public policies, in order to take charge of the development of consumer-oriented society. The policymakers shall adapt to this important change in the history of China's economic development. >>
China's cyber supervision and governance as a major internet power should adjust its starting point and ideas, encouraging and protecting development and bottom-line thinking in order for principled supervision to take place. The outside world's concern about China's internet supervision is that China's cybersecurity censorship system is ambiguous and uncertain. Although it gives the regulatory authorities a lot of flexibility, it also makes the market feel rather inconvenient, and it can even lead to obstacles for the market. On some major issues and important areas (such as national security, personal information protection, intellectual property protection, and political security), China should formulate basic rules, rather than fragmenting the management on behalf of different authorities. >>
The trade dispute between China and the United States has not only created a significant impact on China's foreign trade, but also exposed that China's high-tech aspects are still lagging relatively behind (e.g. chip industry). Chen Gong, ANBOUND Chief Researcher, explains that from the perspective of public policy, a strength indicator is to measure and determine the intelligence level of the manufacturing industry. How advanced the manufacturing technology can be judged by the direction per capita non-land investment. The higher the scale of non-land investment, the higher level of intelligence in manufacturing projects. >>