On August 18, Israel launched eight airstrikes against the Abu al-Duhur air base in northwestern Syria. This base is located about 70 km from the Turkish border. Israel also informed the U.S. that Turkey might be preparing to deploy radar systems and air defense equipment at the Abu al-Duhur base, which could significantly alter the regional balance of power. Turkey plans to respond to the Israeli strikes, and military conflict between the two countries inside Syria is expected. In fact, Turkey's conflicts with Israel over issues such as Gaza, Iran, and Lebanon are very obvious. Turkey also possesses massive military resources of its own, which were originally intended to help NATO resist Russia, but are now also being used to challenge the geopolitical interests of the U.S. and Israel. Turkey increasingly displays an independence that far exceeds the constraints of the NATO order, which is a concrete manifestation of the concept of "regional polarization" mentioned by ANBOUND’s founder Kung Chan.
Regional polarization leads to the emergence of regional hegemony, indicating the trend of countries within a region gravitating toward a certain country. At the same time, it also shows the expansion of a certain country's power within the region and its efforts to build a new order within the region. Regional hegemony does not arise out of nowhere. Instead, it is a process that begins with regional polarization. Turkey is a typical example of regional polarization. Of course, Israel is also an example of this. There is also Saudi Arabia, which is working hard toward this. In addition, there are also India and Japan. Finally, there is Iran, which is currently engulfed in war.
Amidst this trend and process of regional polarization, the only confusing aspect is China. China's direction of action seems to run completely counter to the concept of regional polarization. It appears the country is still moving towards building some kind of major-power relationship globally. Therefore, G2 remains an attractive goal for China, and U.S. President Donald Trump also seems to be utilizing this to build his version of a special relationship with China.
In Asia, apart from the undisguised polarized nation of India, another important country is Japan. In fact, the election of Sanae Takaichi already signifies the beginning of Japan's polarization in Asia. However, due to the existence of the security treaty and domestic opposition, Japan refuses to admit this. Up to now, ANBOUND firmly believes that Japan will eventually move toward polarization as well, which means it will increasingly exert its influence in Asia, regardless of whether the U.S. approves or not. The contradictions between Japan and the U.S. will grow larger, and this could be in economic, financial, or political relations. Japan being able to say "no" will gradually become a reality. When the time comes that Japan can freely express its "independence", it will extend an olive branch to China. Therefore, Japan's polarization is beneficial to its relations with China in the long run.
Most noteworthy is that in the process of this regional polarization, conflicts between countries are inevitable. This is completely normal and is also a manifestation of the polarization process. As no nation will readily admit that another nation is the key pole in this region, all of this must be established through the struggles of regional polarization. This is true for Japan, and it will be true for China, as well as India, Turkey, and other countries. International disputes will consequently become exceptionally fierce. The reason lies precisely in the regional polarization amidst the collapse of the global order. First, countries see an opportunity to become that pole. Second, no nation is convinced, and none submits to another. Therefore, confrontations, frictions, and rivalry will arise one after another. The winners in the region, those rich in resources and those capable of responding wisely, will ultimately emerge as the victorious regional hegemons.
