Newsletter By 2026-10-31
Today, the U.S.-Iran confrontation continues over the Strait of Hormuz, while the Houthi conflict persists across the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Despite intensive airstrikes, Iran’s regional network and posture remain remarkably resilient. Recent devastating strikes on critical infrastructure in regional capitals, show that there is an escalation of volatility. Other than the fiscal pressures facing the Gulf states and the risk of a global asset revaluation, the biggest and more far-reaching issue is how the situation in the Middle East will change the structure of the global energy market.
ANBOUND’s founder Kung Chan provides his unique views on this matter in an
article published in
CEOWorld Magazine.
Abstracting a trend model of social movements from the cycle of ideological currents, we arrive at this: Intellectuals -> Left wing focuses on wealth disparity -> Political maneuvering centers on distribution -> Typically dictatorship and high pressure -> Errors and failures begin to accumulate -> Control capacity becomes increasingly crucial -> Wealth, environmental, and resource reserves near exhaustion -> The right begins to rise -> Emphasis on production and efficiency -> Return of conservatism -> Through reproduction, wealth re-creation, and accumulation -> Renewed focus on wealth inequality -> Splitting of left and right once again. The significance of this cyclical model lies in uncovering the relationship between social change and human beings, analyzes
ANBOUND’s founder Kung Chan in
Modern Diplomacy.
>>In this latest wave of global bond market sell-offs, credit risk associated with French government bonds has become more obvious. This reflects the accumulation of long-standing economic and fiscal problems in France, the impact of political divisions and uncertainty on financial markets. Given the structural weaknesses in the EU’s economic and fiscal framework and the European Central Bank’s institutional arrangements, the underlying vulnerabilities exposed by the eurozone debt crisis have not been fully resolved. The risk of a recurrence is also increasing as Europe’s geopolitical landscape continues to evolve, according to
Wei Hongxu, Senior Economist of China Macro-Economy Research Center at ANBOUND.
>>Under U.S.-China competition, the market pressures faced by Chinese enterprises are genuine, Western trade barriers drive up their own production, energy, and consumer costs, increasing inflation and employment pressures. They compel Chinese manufacturing to pivot toward third-party markets, which in turn exacerbates competition for Western enterprises in the global market. The coming decade will likely remain an important window for Chinese manufacturing to recapture and position itself within the world market, discussed
Zhijiang Zhao, Research Fellow for Geopolitical Strategy programme at ANBOUND.
>>By the end of 2025, China's total government debt had reached RMB 102.5 trillion, officially crossing the RMB 100 trillion threshold. The conditions of land finance, high growth, and asset appreciation that previously supported debt expansion have changed. The real issue will progressively transition from "public finance in the market" to "the government in the market", reinforcing the role of the capital market. This will usher government finance into a new phase that places greater emphasis on assets, cash flows, and investment efficiency, writes
Yang Xite, Research Fellow at ANBOUND.
>>
