Anbound Think Tank
has entered its 26th year. As a multinational independent think tank from
China, Anbound's focus has long been on public policy research, providing a
large number of forward-looking judgments, risk warnings and strategic
forecasts to the Chinese government, the public and thousands of Anbound's
customers. Although these judgments and forecasts are Anbound's research
results and service contents, because these studies are involved in a huge
number of public policy issues, and many of them have become national and local
policies in China, Anbound's researches can be thought to be public products that
contributes to the Chinese society.
system is often said to be a "tracking system", and this is how
Anbound has been describing itself in the past 26 years. What then is a
tracking research system? How do Anbound's scholars track and analyze
information? The answer for these questions can be quite lengthy.
What is known as
"science" is largely derived from the natural science. This is similar to what
had been done by Euclid, Isaac Newton, Marie Curie, and Thomas Edison. It is
through natural science that rockets can reach the sky. As an important part of
human civilization, natural science has contributed greatly to the progress of
mankind, promoting human exploration of the deep space.
part of human civilization is social science. Social science is different from
natural science. It concerns people's positions and emotions, allowing many
different opinions and arguments.
speaking, social science refers to the overall system that uses scientific
methods that study various phenomena of the human society. It can also
encompass any discipline from this system, such as sociology concerning
contemporary human society, political science, policies and related activities,
economic research on resources allocation and so on.
social sciences only appeared in the 19th century. Without the rational
exploration spirit of ancient Greece, there would be no social science today.
In medieval theology there were combinations based on the concepts of humans
and society. These concepts encompass politics, society, economy, geography and
anthropology. Throughout the Middle Ages, even during the Renaissance and
Reformation eras, the Church paid great attention to scholars' thoughts on
human thinking and social behavior, and tried to control them. As scholastic
philosophy became weaker, Classical Greek literature and the inference method
of the René Descartes, as well as regarding of social reform and social science
as one in the 18th century, all hindered the development of social science.
With the spread of social science ideals in the 17th and 18th centuries, the
understanding of the complexity of human experience in the world, as well as
the social and cultural state of human social behavior began to gradually
expand. These were all reflected in theories, in which changes can be seen in
the structural concepts and their development.
science was first established, everyone always wanted to establish themselves
within a generalization of social science, while others pursued the
specialization of a single subject. As time went on, the result was that the
latter won. Economics and political science first reached an independent
scientific level. This was followed by anthropology and sociology. Social psychology
also began in the 19th century, though its outline was not as clear as other
subjects. Finally, social statistics and social geography has emerged as well.
From then onwards, the path of the development of social science is like that
of natural science's, and began to emphasize paradigms.
"science" has been used to refer the division of knowledge,
specifically the study of various types of knowledge through detailed
classification, such as mathematics, physics, chemistry, and others to form a
gradual and complete knowledge system. Based on such a paradigm and result,
"science" emphasizes a verifiable interpretation and an orderly knowledge
system that predicts the form and organization of objective phenomenon. An
obvious benefit of doing things this way is that knowledge will become easier
to be understood and learnt.
However, in the
age of modern information society, the internet and artificial intelligence
have obvious impact on such traditional understanding. The so-called
"science" and "social science" are no exceptions. The
existence of paradigm and its breakthrough have become the main issues and
paved the direction for the future. In the field of social sciences, paradigm
thought facilitates understanding and learning, yet it also constrains people's
imagination and innovation. Under this circumstance, the thought based on the
understanding of the information society has begun to attract attention.
development of artificial intelligence, where we are living in days where
humans are of no challenge in the game of chess when competing with machines,
the actual way of learning in the future may be changing. Our mechanical,
backward learning method of data review and writing has become replaceable by
artificial intelligence tools. The derivation and judgment based on the
information and materials, on the basis of effective information integration
and definition, should work to locate new and effective dynamic logic paths,
and thereby generate forecasts. This should be the key to the formation of
innovative thinking in the information society. Excellent think tank scholars
are always conducting deduction like mathematicians.
In fact, this is
the biggest contrast between the research model of Anbound Think Tank and other
common research or academic institutions, which is the difference in paradigm
and information thinking. Daily research reports, subject analysis, and
so-called professional analysis are usually the result of paradigm thinking,
while the research of Anbound is often the result of information thinking.
There is not a gap in knowledge between the two, but there are huge differences
in the apparent model of thought. This is also the most important reason why
many Chinese and foreign scholars are unable to adapt to Anbound's research
activities when they are at Anbound.
However, such a
problem is not unsolvable. The key of the solution can be found in thought
training. Anbound has a complete set of thought training methods to improve the
ability of think tank scholars. This training method has been tested for 25
years and its efficacy is proven. This method of think training is not
complicated, but it takes time and persistence to see the result. The first
step is to master the ability of information integration and data application.
The second step is to grasp the ability to correctly derive and judge. With
this ability, the rest will be easier. As for the " falsifiability"
requirement of science, in the aspect of social sciences, it would be the
verification of the results. This is only a common phenomenon in Anbound, as
there are too many the forecasts and forward-looking judgments being verified
by the facts.
Does it mean that
if these steps are done, everyone will have the right results and forecasts?
Absolutely not, as there are limited information's conditions. The richer the
knowledge, the more perfect the condition of information, and the more reliable
the results will appear. In contrast, if the opposite occurs, it would not be
reliable and credible. Therefore, what can be pursued are verifiable results of
judgment and forecasts. It would be more accurate to say that the methodology
of Anbound is one of a kind in the field of public policy research but
fortunately, it conforms to the technological trend of the future society.