Sunday, March 17, 2019

Anbound Think Tank has entered its 26th year. As a multinational independent think tank from China, Anbound's focus has long been on public policy research, providing a large number of forward-looking judgments, risk warnings and strategic forecasts to the Chinese government, the public and thousands of Anbound's customers. Although these judgments and forecasts are Anbound's research results and service contents, because these studies are involved in a huge number of public policy issues, and many of them have become national and local policies in China, Anbound's researches can be thought to be public products that contributes to the Chinese society.

Anbound's research system is often said to be a "tracking system", and this is how Anbound has been describing itself in the past 26 years. What then is a tracking research system? How do Anbound's scholars track and analyze information? The answer for these questions can be quite lengthy.

What is known as "science" is largely derived from the natural science. This is similar to what had been done by Euclid, Isaac Newton, Marie Curie, and Thomas Edison. It is through natural science that rockets can reach the sky. As an important part of human civilization, natural science has contributed greatly to the progress of mankind, promoting human exploration of the deep space.

Another crucial part of human civilization is social science. Social science is different from natural science. It concerns people's positions and emotions, allowing many different opinions and arguments.

Generally speaking, social science refers to the overall system that uses scientific methods that study various phenomena of the human society. It can also encompass any discipline from this system, such as sociology concerning contemporary human society, political science, policies and related activities, economic research on resources allocation and so on.

Strictly speaking, social sciences only appeared in the 19th century. Without the rational exploration spirit of ancient Greece, there would be no social science today. In medieval theology there were combinations based on the concepts of humans and society. These concepts encompass politics, society, economy, geography and anthropology. Throughout the Middle Ages, even during the Renaissance and Reformation eras, the Church paid great attention to scholars' thoughts on human thinking and social behavior, and tried to control them. As scholastic philosophy became weaker, Classical Greek literature and the inference method of the René Descartes, as well as regarding of social reform and social science as one in the 18th century, all hindered the development of social science. With the spread of social science ideals in the 17th and 18th centuries, the understanding of the complexity of human experience in the world, as well as the social and cultural state of human social behavior began to gradually expand. These were all reflected in theories, in which changes can be seen in the structural concepts and their development.

When social science was first established, everyone always wanted to establish themselves within a generalization of social science, while others pursued the specialization of a single subject. As time went on, the result was that the latter won. Economics and political science first reached an independent scientific level. This was followed by anthropology and sociology. Social psychology also began in the 19th century, though its outline was not as clear as other subjects. Finally, social statistics and social geography has emerged as well. From then onwards, the path of the development of social science is like that of natural science's, and began to emphasize paradigms.

The term "science" has been used to refer the division of knowledge, specifically the study of various types of knowledge through detailed classification, such as mathematics, physics, chemistry, and others to form a gradual and complete knowledge system. Based on such a paradigm and result, "science" emphasizes a verifiable interpretation and an orderly knowledge system that predicts the form and organization of objective phenomenon. An obvious benefit of doing things this way is that knowledge will become easier to be understood and learnt.

However, in the age of modern information society, the internet and artificial intelligence have obvious impact on such traditional understanding. The so-called "science" and "social science" are no exceptions. The existence of paradigm and its breakthrough have become the main issues and paved the direction for the future. In the field of social sciences, paradigm thought facilitates understanding and learning, yet it also constrains people's imagination and innovation. Under this circumstance, the thought based on the understanding of the information society has begun to attract attention.

Considering the development of artificial intelligence, where we are living in days where humans are of no challenge in the game of chess when competing with machines, the actual way of learning in the future may be changing. Our mechanical, backward learning method of data review and writing has become replaceable by artificial intelligence tools. The derivation and judgment based on the information and materials, on the basis of effective information integration and definition, should work to locate new and effective dynamic logic paths, and thereby generate forecasts. This should be the key to the formation of innovative thinking in the information society. Excellent think tank scholars are always conducting deduction like mathematicians.

In fact, this is the biggest contrast between the research model of Anbound Think Tank and other common research or academic institutions, which is the difference in paradigm and information thinking. Daily research reports, subject analysis, and so-called professional analysis are usually the result of paradigm thinking, while the research of Anbound is often the result of information thinking. There is not a gap in knowledge between the two, but there are huge differences in the apparent model of thought. This is also the most important reason why many Chinese and foreign scholars are unable to adapt to Anbound's research activities when they are at Anbound.

However, such a problem is not unsolvable. The key of the solution can be found in thought training. Anbound has a complete set of thought training methods to improve the ability of think tank scholars. This training method has been tested for 25 years and its efficacy is proven. This method of think training is not complicated, but it takes time and persistence to see the result. The first step is to master the ability of information integration and data application. The second step is to grasp the ability to correctly derive and judge. With this ability, the rest will be easier. As for the " falsifiability" requirement of science, in the aspect of social sciences, it would be the verification of the results. This is only a common phenomenon in Anbound, as there are too many the forecasts and forward-looking judgments being verified by the facts.

Final analysis conclusion:

Does it mean that if these steps are done, everyone will have the right results and forecasts? Absolutely not, as there are limited information's conditions. The richer the knowledge, the more perfect the condition of information, and the more reliable the results will appear. In contrast, if the opposite occurs, it would not be reliable and credible. Therefore, what can be pursued are verifiable results of judgment and forecasts. It would be more accurate to say that the methodology of Anbound is one of a kind in the field of public policy research but fortunately, it conforms to the technological trend of the future society.

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