Wednesday, February 14, 2018

To predict what China's economic growth will be like in 2018, one might simply extrapolate from the downward linear progression of China's macro-economy in recent years. It is apparent that the economic growth has been decreasing for the most part in the last decade or so, and only a fraction of the statistical data indicates an increase in economic growth. Even from the perspective of the global market, things do not look very bright for China's economic growth in 2018. For one, China's goods and services are facing increasing challenges in the global market thanks primarily to the wave of conservatism sweeping across the world. This in turn is affecting the Chinese economy like never before. Moreover, China is also facing growing ecological and environmental pressures which, compounded by the challenges of past economic uncertainties such as a GDP and the reduction of growth at the expense of the environment, will result in a decrease in the country's economic growth in 2018. The current forecast of Anbound remains consistent (no amendments have been made) with that which has been widely published at the end of 2017, and China's economic growth in 2018 is estimated to be 6.5%. It is worth noting, however, that this forecast is based on a linear extrapolation from the current data; any government would make adjustments and policy changes in line with the demands of the concomitant economic situation and consequently revise the corresponding data on economic growth rates, at least to a certain extent. Therefore, 2018 still holds a few uncertainties for China's economic growth.

A new report Social and Economic Trends in China (《中国经济社会趋势的若干预测》) that has been finished by Anbound Chief Researcher Chen Gong and macroeconomic research team in the debut of January 2018, the key forecasts are summarized as below.

  • Keynesianism and China
  • Debt issuance required to maintain steady economic growth
  • China's Economic Growth Rate in 2018
  • Hong Kong is important; Taiwan is not
  • China's competitiveness exhibits overall downward trend
  • Differences between compression of production capacity and deleveraging
  • Reorganizing the system of social organization
  • Establishment of consortiums and mixed-ownership reform
  •  Private enterprises face considerable challenges
  •  On re-privatization and re-nationalization
  •  Large amount of debt issuance unavoidable
  •  Differentiation of foreign investments in China
  •  The nature of the administrative economy
  •  China's fluctuating tax policy
  •  Anti-consumerism
  •  Individual efficiency does not reflect overall efficiency
  •  Issuance of new currency does not necessarily lead to inflation
  •  The epidemic of trade protectionism
  •  Macro liabilities determine devaluation of RMB
  •  Financial stimulus package should replace land economy
  •  Technological innovation beneficial to the market
  •  Middle class in China has ceased to exist
  •  The world is entering an era of major crisis
  •  Overproduction will cause a global crisis
  •  The problems plaguing China's Southeastern Coast
  • PDF version can also be downloaded here.

    Research BriefsMore ..

    Learn from The Decline of Pasadena

    Thursday, December 26, 2019

    The End of Old Nuclear Deterrence Mode

    Friday, December 20, 2019

    The key contents and basic judgment on the U.S.-China trade negotiation

    Sunday, December 15, 2019

    Expert InterviewsMore ..

    China and the U.S. achieved a 'phase-one' agreement

    Sunday, December 15, 2019

    USD/CNH: Offshore Yuan resilient to reports predicting ZIRP in China

    Monday, November 25, 2019

    Cities can Unlock a Combined $60 Billion by Hyperconnecting their Urban Ecosystems

    Thursday, November 21, 2019

    NewsMore ..

    U.S. stocks rally in post-Christmas trade

    Friday, December 27, 2019

    China's goods, services trade income totals 1.65 trln yuan in November

    Friday, December 27, 2019

    Pentagon confirms no missile launched from DPRK

    Friday, December 27, 2019

    BookstoreMore ..



    Chen Gong


    17 Days of Flight MH370 Lost


    Chen Gong



    Author: Chen Gong and Others

    Publication Date:November 2017

    Publisher: China Financial & Economic Publishing House

    What's onMore ..

    2019 Pedestrian Oriented Development Forum held in Chengdu of China

    Saturday, November 09, 2019

    ANBOUND presented at the 9th Malaysia-China Entrepreneurs Conference in Kuala Lumpur

    Saturday, October 12, 2019

    ANBOUND delivered the speech at the​ 5th Energy Forum of China

    Monday, September 23, 2019

    Check out our
    tweets & activity
    Connect and share
    with us