Wednesday, February 14, 2018

To predict what China's economic growth will be like in 2018, one might simply extrapolate from the downward linear progression of China's macro-economy in recent years. It is apparent that the economic growth has been decreasing for the most part in the last decade or so, and only a fraction of the statistical data indicates an increase in economic growth. Even from the perspective of the global market, things do not look very bright for China's economic growth in 2018. For one, China's goods and services are facing increasing challenges in the global market thanks primarily to the wave of conservatism sweeping across the world. This in turn is affecting the Chinese economy like never before. Moreover, China is also facing growing ecological and environmental pressures which, compounded by the challenges of past economic uncertainties such as a GDP and the reduction of growth at the expense of the environment, will result in a decrease in the country's economic growth in 2018. The current forecast of Anbound remains consistent (no amendments have been made) with that which has been widely published at the end of 2017, and China's economic growth in 2018 is estimated to be 6.5%. It is worth noting, however, that this forecast is based on a linear extrapolation from the current data; any government would make adjustments and policy changes in line with the demands of the concomitant economic situation and consequently revise the corresponding data on economic growth rates, at least to a certain extent. Therefore, 2018 still holds a few uncertainties for China's economic growth.

A new report Social and Economic Trends in China (《中国经济社会趋势的若干预测》) that has been finished by Anbound Chief Researcher Chen Gong and macroeconomic research team in the debut of January 2018, the key forecasts are summarized as below.

  • Keynesianism and China
  • Debt issuance required to maintain steady economic growth
  • China's Economic Growth Rate in 2018
  • Hong Kong is important; Taiwan is not
  • China's competitiveness exhibits overall downward trend
  • Differences between compression of production capacity and deleveraging
  • Reorganizing the system of social organization
  • Establishment of consortiums and mixed-ownership reform
  •  Private enterprises face considerable challenges
  •  On re-privatization and re-nationalization
  •  Large amount of debt issuance unavoidable
  •  Differentiation of foreign investments in China
  •  The nature of the administrative economy
  •  China's fluctuating tax policy
  •  Anti-consumerism
  •  Individual efficiency does not reflect overall efficiency
  •  Issuance of new currency does not necessarily lead to inflation
  •  The epidemic of trade protectionism
  •  Macro liabilities determine devaluation of RMB
  •  Financial stimulus package should replace land economy
  •  Technological innovation beneficial to the market
  •  Middle class in China has ceased to exist
  •  The world is entering an era of major crisis
  •  Overproduction will cause a global crisis
  •  The problems plaguing China's Southeastern Coast
  • PDF version can also be downloaded here.

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