【ANBOUND GEOPOLITICAL REVIEW】 While Hong Kong now is much better than during the COVID-19 period, it is still not quite the bustling and prosperous city in the past. The most important focus for improving the future of the Hong Kong economy should be on two points. The first is that the value of Hong Kong's assets must be stabilized; the second being the residents' income must be guaranteed. With the Federal Reserve reducing the rate hike, possibly stopping interest rate hikes in the future, this creates a policy window period for the Hong Kong authorities who may consider freezing rents, reducing interest rates, and increasing residents' income to gradually stabilize the island-city's economy, in the words of
ANBOUND’s founder Kung Chan.
>> Senior Chinese diplomat with his trip to Europe sounded a powerful voice for the country. Based on the principles of sovereignty and peace, China's diplomacy has expressed a clear attitude towards major international issues, hoping to provide a different choice in the current intense geopolitical frictions. Regardless of the outcome, this will help to reverse China's previous passive situation in the international geopolitical game, in the opinion of
He Jun, Director of Macro-Economy Research Center and Senior Researcher at ANBOUND.
>>【PRESENT VALUE】 The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) calls for historic investments in old mobility—notably, and not surprisingly, a lot of money available for highway development and redevelopment. The bill also calls for investment in new technologies, most notably in the future of electrification across all surface programs (including electric cars and buses). The middle ground is and has always been continued investment in passenger rail, which is a well-known technology that sits at the crossroads of equity, sustainability, mobility, and climate initiatives. “We’re still learning the ramifications of the historical, $1.2 trillion Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) aka the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), but two things are clear”, discussed
Sam Sklar, a director with Econsult Solutions, Inc. (ESI).
>> The Japanese government officially nominated academic economist Kazuo Ueda as the next central bank governor on February 14. This unexpected decision also makes the BOJ direction of monetary policy, which has been under market scrutiny, to be even more difficult to grasp. Many market participants are aware that the change of the BOJ governor in April will be an opportunity for a policy shift. That being said, neither pragmatic policy tightening adjustment nor continued easing will be an easy task for Ueda. Continued easing will lead to a narrower path and generate more risks in the long run; while tightening policy or even raising interest rates will inevitably lead to market turmoil. Whether a soft landing could be achieved or not, it will be a test for the new governor, said
Wei Hongxu, senior economist at ANBOUND.
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