Newsletter By 2022-06-06
【Judgement and Predictions】 As early as 2020, ANBOUND researchers have pointed out the occurrence of “reverse globalization” that would be "structural", synonymous with “long-term, new order, and redefinition”. The world will undergo numerous permanent changes, which cannot be casually happened. The elites who championed globalization in the past, such as U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, have now recognized that "globalization is over", and that the era of globalization reversing has changed the world. While this is a belated recognition, it is still better than misjudging the actual phenomenon. The shift of views from those conventional elites in international community will further facilitate the reversible process of globalization trend, and exert major impacts on the decisions and actions that many countries and companies take in today's world.
>> 【KC’s Column】 France and Germany have always been the most important countries in Europe, both historically and culturally, as well as in terms of economic weight. This, however, is not set in stone, noted
ANBOUND's founder Kung Chan. Focusing excessively on their self-interest, the "pragmaticism" of these two countries has not been well-regarded by others, not even by their own citizens. They relied on the unified European market to make money, but refused to take responsibility for that. When the war in Ukraine broke up right in Europe, fearing that they would be involved, France and Germany have stepped aside. The future of Europe will definitely undergo major changes, and the status of France and Germany will also be redefined.
>> The uncertainties of the COVID-19 pandemic have highlighted the need for accurate information to support sound decisions. However, having access to more information can make it harder for people to decide what to believe or not believe. Researchers at
RAND Corporation explored
What is the evidence of Truth Decay—the declining role of facts in public life—in Europe? Has this phenomenon taken hold there in the same way it has in the U.S.? If Truth Decay in Europe is at a less advanced stage than in the United States, there is still time to act and help prevent or slow its growth.
Researchers at ANBOUND discussed that in the short term, Russia will maintain a significant role in the global market within the two types of strategic resource, energy (oil, natural gas) and food. These will become the twin bargaining chips for Russia to put its pressure on the world and compete with Western countries. As long as the world outside Russia fails to complete the transformation of energy and food supply and demand systems, the "weaponization" effect of energy and food will always exist. In these turbulent times, geopolitics dominates the livelihoods and fortunes of tens, if not hundreds, of millions of people. If the world experiences a rare cold winter at the end of 2022, we may see tragic, chilling scenes of starvation and death, not only in poorer countries, but also in developed Europe.
>>As the economic development in China goes to a new stage, economists at ANBOUND have noticed that the rise of new infrastructure heralds an adjustment in the focus of local infrastructure investment, shifting from meeting the needs of rapid urbanization to facilitating internal economic cycles. In response to the downward pressure on the economy brought about by measures to contain the spread of COVID-19, infrastructure investment in China is turning its pattern from the traditional "big" and "fast" to the nowadays’ "refined" and "slow". To avoid falling into the debt trap, local governments in the country will need to work out new policies for well meeting with new economic opportunities.
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