Newsletter By 2022-05-13
【KC's Column】 When will the war in Ukraine end? Firstly, media news said that Moscow has planned to end the war in September 2022. The second tip is that Russia has about 1,200 to 1,300 missiles in its inventory. Combining these two points allows us to do a basic analysis. If we calculate the average number of missiles that Russia uses on the Ukrainian battlefield every day, we figure out at least 300 missiles to be launched in a month by the Russian army. Now stay in the month of May, and after 5 months, Russia's missile inventory would be exhausted. This means that, by October 2022, the Russian military would have almost no effective weapons to attack Ukraine. Judging the currently available information,
ANBOUND's founder Kung Chan foresaw that the end of the war in Ukraine would be around September to October 2022. The accuracy of the forecast will be verified as the event unfolds.
>> 【Observation and Prediction】 According to ANBOUND's researches, the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework is an attempt by the U.S. to establish a more diverse communication and cooperation with the Western Pacific region through economic collaboration. ASEAN nations are expected to play a crucial role under such a mechanism. What is certain is that China and the U.S. will center their game around ASEAN as the U.S. promotes its Indo-Pacific economic strategy. In the future, the key to the broader game between China and the U.S. in the region lies in ASEAN. If the U.S. does not include ASEAN in its Indo-Pacific strategy and economic framework, there will be a huge gap. The same is true for China. If China cannot maintain close economic ties and stable geopolitical relations with ASEAN, China will be rather a passive onlooker in the global geopolitical game.
>> While the Federal Reserve's latest policy resolution is relatively moderate, its interest rate hike and future balance sheet reduction are more aggressive than previous measures. The latter reflects its strong desire to keep inflation under control. It is unclear whether such hasty policy tightening will result in an economic soft landing. The negative effects made by such an approach on the global market come to be more apparent. At present, the Fed is forcing the world's major economies to follow in its policy footsteps, like Brazil, India, and the United Kingdom. Liquidity contractions will hurt the global economy, with emerging markets and less-developed countries bearing the brunt of the damage.
>>The geopolitical risks to the international financial system have increased significantly with the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Such risks include the financial sanctions imposed on Russia by the Western countries, mainly the United States and Europe. The geopolitical risks to the international financial system have increased significantly with the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Such risks include the financial sanctions imposed on Russia by the Western countries, mainly the United States and Europe. This system's "weaponization" poses a real and long-term threat to China. Its accumulated assets abroad are now vulnerable to severe geopolitical risks. The policy makers need to conduct a strategic study and to be in effective reaction to the long-run negative geopolitical circumstance.
>>The COVID-19 pandemic is a common challenge faced by all humankind, not a unique situation in a country. Scholars at ANBOUND noted that China's public policy will remain sufficiently open in response to the outbreak. In essence, the method to deal with the pandemic is a public policy issue based on scientific research and analysis. It is a request to examine the outbreak-control policies and practices in the context of changes, such as the latest development of the novel coronavirus and the beginning of global economic recovery. These views must be based on the pandemic’s impact on the country's economy, foreign investors' perceptions, and judgments of its efforts. This initiative should then be followed by suitable adjustments and optimizations accordingly. Under the principle of "People First, Life First," China shall also advocate "Science First".
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